Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 29 |
| Height | 5' 11" |
| Weight | 215 lb |
| Debut | 2020-09-01 |
Player profile / Cincinnati Reds
Ke'Bryan Hayes
3B · Bats/Throws R/R · 5' 11", 215 lb · Age 29
Club Cincinnati Reds
Position 3B
Roster Active
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 396 | 38 | 85 | 4 | 11 | .233 | .283 | .290 | .573 |
| 2025 | 570 | 50 | 124 | 5 | 12 | .235 | .290 | .306 | .596 |
| 2026 | 139 | 11 | 18 | 2 | 1 | .138 | .194 | .215 | .409 |
| 7 Seasons | 2681 | 285 | 609 | 44 | 64 | .247 | .302 | .359 | .661 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
53
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.305 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.304 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.304 |
| Observed weight | 42% |
xwOBA
0.278
0.290
0.304
0.319
0.331
wOBA
0.218
0.239
0.263
0.286
0.308
ISO
0.089
0.105
0.123
0.142
0.158
K%
15.5%
16.8%
18.2%
19.7%
21.0%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.7%
61
+15 vs proj
Exit velocity90.6
81
Hard-hit%42.1%
64
xBA0.305
31
xSLG0.477
38
xwOBA0.304
46
BB%7.6%
38
+17 vs proj
Bat speed68.6
35
K%15.9%
83
+17 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength79.4 · 3B
6
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
43
Range Runs-0.1 · 3B
47
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.0 · 3B
40
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.2% · rebadged research
59
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 32.8% · rebadged research
8
Correct Decisions62.9% · rebadged research
20
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.244 · borderline
99
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · insufficient sample
79
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271 · validated thin sample
78
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.320 · insufficient sample
81
Resists FastballwOBA 0.317 · validated
87
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.356 · validated
62
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
24
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
111 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.000 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.041 |
positive regression
Regression watch
Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.
Hayes’s wOBA sits at 0.263, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.304 — a gap of 0.041, 1.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 157 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 4 | 2026-04-21 | Disciplined swing decisions drove the score |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.304 xwOBA | 11 HR | Projection |
| 2026-05-20 @ PHI0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-0 |
| 2026-04-20 @ TB0 HR | 0 RBI / 4 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | K |
| 2026-04-17 @ MIN0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-0 |
| 2026-04-15 vs SF0 HR | 0 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | BB |
| 2026-04-14 vs SF0 HR | 0 RBI / 4 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 |