Mithrandir Metrics
Player CIN Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / CIN

Chris Paddack

Player · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 5", 217 lb · Age 30

Cards
11
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club CIN Position -- Roster profile Status Out / inactive
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024534.991717088.1791.39
20255125.3533281158.01121.28
2026076.79149057.0401.67
8 Seasons32434.831321191638.25691.26
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
25
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
29
Arsenal7 metrics
52
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.62
9
ERA6.79
5
BB%6.8%
78
K%15.4%
8
xwOBA allowed0.342
23
Barrel allowed8.5%
39
Fastball velo93.0
26
Hard-hit allowed38.0%
56
Whiff%19.3%
20
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-18
Changeup Stuff+108
89
Fastball Stuff+108
89
Mithrandir Stuff+104
66
Curveball Stuff+98
6
Cutter Stuff+102
49
Sinker Stuff+102
52
Slider Stuff+95
10
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Paddack, Chris · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.342 2026-07-07: 0.3432026-07-08: 0.3432026-07-09: 0.3432026-07-10: 0.3432026-07-11: 0.3432026-07-12: 0.3432026-07-13: 0.3422026-07-14: 0.3422026-07-15: 0.3422026-07-16: 0.3422026-07-17: 0.3422026-07-18: 0.342 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 34%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Paddack, Chris · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Paddack, Chris · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 34.1%Changeup: 26.8%Cutter: 13.4%Curveball: 11.4%Sweeper: 7.8%Sinker: 6.4% FF34% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 34%CH 27%FC 13%CU 11%ST 8%SI 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Paddack, Chris · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 34% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 93.0 mphFF93 mphChangeup: 27% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 84.8 mphCH85 mphCutter: 13% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 86.5 mphFC87 mphCurveball: 11% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 62″ drop, 77.0 mphCU77 mphSweeper: 8% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 79.4 mphST79 mphSinker: 6% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 92.9 mphSI93 mphSlider: 0% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 82.3 mphSL82 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 33.7% 263 108 qualified
CH 26.7% 208 108 qualified
FC 11.9% 93 102 limited sample
CB 11.0% 86 98 limited sample
SL 9.7% 76 95 limited sample
SI 6.9% 54 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

MLB bio context is unavailable.
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.9σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.401
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.342

Paddack’s wOBA-against sits at 0.401, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.342 — a gap of 0.058, 1.9 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 60 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching112026-05-234-Seam Fastball played up through CU/FC tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

No projection links or recent game log rows are available yet.