Mithrandir Metrics
Player Colorado Rockies Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Colorado Rockies

Brett Sullivan

C · Bats/Throws L/R · 5' 11", 190 lb · Age 32

Cards
1
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Colorado Rockies Position C Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections
PARHHRSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2024171310.188.235.375.610
202591100.167.333.167.500
2026133122740.221.265.385.650
4 Seasons245214860.213.258.342.600
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
22
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
25
Defense4 metrics
20
Speed1 metrics
73
Plate skills13 metrics
39
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
xwOBA preseason0.290
xwOBA current pace0.268
xwOBA rolling p500.281
Observed weight40%
xwOBA
0.232 0.255 0.281 0.308 0.331
wOBA
0.283 0.306 0.333 0.359 0.383
ISO
0.095 0.125 0.160 0.194 0.224
K%
15.0% 17.6% 20.5% 23.4% 26.1%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.8%
19
Exit velocity87.0
36
Hard-hit%35.1%
32
xBA0.275
12
xSLG0.412
16
xwOBA0.268
15
BB%4.9%
13
Bat speed65.2
7
K%17.4%
78
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.4 · C
31
Catcher Throwing-1.4 · C
12
Framing Runs-3.3 · C
16
Pop Time2.0 · C
21
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.2 · C
73
SB Success Rate0.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-17
Avoids Bad ChasesST 57.9% · rebadged research
16
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.1% · rebadged research
23
Changeup Stuff+72
0
Correct Decisions61.7% · rebadged research
14
Mithrandir Stuff+70
3
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.276 · borderline
77
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.260 · insufficient sample
94
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.265 · validated thin sample
88
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.312 · insufficient sample
92
Resists FastballwOBA 0.326 · validated
74
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.381 · validated
11
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline91
12
Slider Stuff+78
0
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Sullivan, Brett · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.268 2026-07-06: 0.2662026-07-07: 0.2662026-07-08: 0.2662026-07-09: 0.2662026-07-10: 0.2682026-07-11: 0.2682026-07-12: 0.2682026-07-13: 0.2682026-07-14: 0.2682026-07-15: 0.2682026-07-16: 0.2682026-07-17: 0.268 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

2Pitches 2026Season 55%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Sullivan, Brett · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 50%50%Chase: 34%34%Whiff: 16%16%Zone contact: 90%90%Contact: 84%84%Hard hit: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sullivan, Brett · 2026 arsenal snapshot Eephus: 54.5%Other: 45.5% EP55% · 55 mphprimary pitch EP 55%FA 45% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sullivan, Brett · 2026 arsenal snapshot 21″42″63″84″ Eephus: 55% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 74″ drop, 55.2 mphEP55 mphOther: 45% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 68.1 mphFA68 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 59.7% 46 78 limited sample
CH 36.4% 28 72 limited sample
CB 3.9% 3 65 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age32
Height5' 11"
Weight190 lb
Debut2023-04-18
Live layer

Delta / regression

xwOBA Δ+0.004
wOBA Δ+0.069

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.8σ gap
wOBA (actual)0.333
xwOBA (deserved)0.268

Sullivan’s wOBA sits at 0.333, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.268 — a gap of 0.065, -1.8 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 144 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Hitting12026-04-29Impact contact was the main driver
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.264 xwOBA | 6 HRProjection
2026-05-20 vs TEX0 HR | 0 RBI / 7 Ch | 1 E0-3
2026-04-20 vs LAD0 HR | 0 RBI / 7 Ch | 0 E2-4
2026-04-17 vs LAD0 HR | 0 RBI / 9 Ch | 0 E0-3 | K
2026-04-15 @ HOU0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E0-1 | K
2026-04-14 @ HOU0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E0-0