Mithrandir Metrics
Player Kansas City Royals Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Kansas City Royals

Cole Ragans

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 4", 190 lb · Age 28

Cards
13
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Kansas City Royals Position P Roster Injured 60-Day Status IL-60
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20241193.1432320186.12231.14
2025334.671313061.2981.18
2026144.8488035.1451.42
5 Seasons22243.7691740419.15061.21
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
33
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
39
Arsenal6 metrics
43
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.74
ERA current pace4.84
ERA rolling p504.23
Observed weight44%
ERA
3.25 3.71 4.23 4.75 5.21
FIP
3.56 3.88 4.24 4.60 4.93
K%
26.2% 27.9% 29.7% 31.6% 33.3%
BB%
9.3% 10.2% 11.2% 12.2% 13.1%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.52
16
ERA4.84
29
BB%14.1%
7 -35 vs proj
K%30.4%
94
xwOBA allowed0.344
22 -48 vs proj
Barrel allowed12.4%
6 -38 vs proj
Fastball velo94.9
58
Hard-hit allowed41.0%
37
Whiff%28.6%
86
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-18
Fastball Stuff+100
36
Mithrandir Stuff+99
26
Changeup Stuff+106
75
Curveball Stuff+101
35
Cutter Stuff+106
88
Slider Stuff+86
1
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ragans, Cole · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.344 2026-07-07: 0.3442026-07-08: 0.3442026-07-09: 0.3442026-07-10: 0.3442026-07-11: 0.3442026-07-12: 0.3442026-07-13: 0.3442026-07-14: 0.3442026-07-15: 0.3442026-07-16: 0.3442026-07-17: 0.3442026-07-18: 0.344 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 56%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ragans, Cole · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ragans, Cole · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 56.3%Changeup: 16.9%Slider: 13.8%Knuckle Curve: 8.1%Cutter: 4.7%Unknown: 0.1% FF56% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 56%CH 17%SL 14%KC 8%FC 5%UN 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ragans, Cole · 2026 arsenal snapshot 24″48″72″96″ 4-Seam Fastball: 56% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 94.9 mphFF95 mphChangeup: 17% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 84.1 mphCH84 mphSlider: 14% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 85.1 mphSL85 mphKnuckle Curve: 8% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 79.1 mphKC79 mphCutter: 5% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 89.7 mphFC90 mphUnknown: 0% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 87″ drop, 60.5 mphUN60 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 56.0% 357 100 qualified
CH 16.5% 105 106 limited sample
SL 13.3% 85 86 limited sample
CB 8.5% 54 101 limited sample
FC 5.7% 36 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age28
Height6' 4"
Weight190 lb
Debut2022-08-04
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+1.26
K% Δ+0.021

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

3.2σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.451
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.344

Ragans’s wOBA-against sits at 0.451, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.344 — a gap of 0.107, 3.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 43 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching132026-05-064-Seam Fastball played up through FF/SL tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202628.3% K | 3.58 ERAProjection
2026-04-14 @ DET0 ER / 1 K6.0 IP
2026-04-08 @ CLE3 ER / 2 K0.2 IP
2026-04-02 vs MIN0 ER / 8 K6.0 IP
2026-03-27 @ ATL4 ER / 5 K4.0 IP