Mithrandir Metrics
Player Philadelphia Phillies Refreshed Oct 21 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Philadelphia Phillies

Jesús Luzardo

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 0", 218 lb · Age 29

Cards
31
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Philadelphia Phillies Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024365.001212066.2581.25
20251573.9232320183.22161.22
20261452.8630290179.22211.07
8 Seasons55463.921671502875.19961.21
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-21
87
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
86
Arsenal5 metrics
63
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-21
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.11
85
ERA2.85
86
BB%7.0%
78
K%29.8%
92
xwOBA allowed0.260
94
Barrel allowed5.6%
79
Fastball velo96.3
79
Hard-hit allowed32.4%
90
Whiff%29.3%
91
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-10-21
Changeup Stuff+108
89
Fastball Stuff+103
53
Mithrandir Stuff+103
58
Sinker Stuff+111
98
Slider Stuff+97
17
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Luzardo, Jesús · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.260 2026-10-10: 0.2602026-10-11: 0.2602026-10-12: 0.2602026-10-13: 0.2602026-10-14: 0.2602026-10-15: 0.2602026-10-16: 0.2602026-10-17: 0.2602026-10-18: 0.2602026-10-19: 0.2602026-10-20: 0.2602026-10-21: 0.260 2026-10-10 2026-10-21 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Luzardo, Jesús · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Luzardo, Jesús · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 37.7%4-Seam Fastball: 25.9%Changeup: 18.2%Sinker: 18.0%Slider: 0.2% ST38% · 86 mphprimary pitch ST 38%FF 26%CH 18%SI 18%SL 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Luzardo, Jesús · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sweeper: 38% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 86.1 mphST86 mph4-Seam Fastball: 26% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 96.8 mphFF97 mphChangeup: 18% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 86.0 mphCH86 mphSinker: 18% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 95.7 mphSI96 mphSlider: 0% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 83.5 mphSL84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 35.8% 635 97 qualified
FB 28.7% 509 103 qualified
CH 20.9% 370 108 qualified
SI 14.7% 260 111 qualified
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age29
Height6' 0"
Weight218 lb
Debut2019-09-11
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.7σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.300
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.260

Luzardo’s wOBA-against sits at 0.300, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.260 — a gap of 0.040, 1.7 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 192 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching312026-09-29Sweeper played up through ST/SI tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202625.9% K | 4.02 ERAProjection
2026-08-15 @ MIN1 ER / 9 K6.2 IP
2026-04-15 vs CHC8 ER / 4 K5.1 IP
2026-04-04 @ COL1 ER / 11 K6.2 IP
2026-03-29 vs TEX6 ER / 7 K6.0 IP