Mithrandir Metrics
Player Omaha Storm Chasers Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Omaha Storm Chasers

Lucas Erceg

P · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 2", 214 lb · Age 31

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club Omaha Storm Chasers Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Out / inactive
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024263.366101461.2721.05
2025842.64610261.1481.17
2026446.234701243.1311.89
4 Seasons18184.07219028221.12191.38
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
11
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
32
Arsenal5 metrics
46
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.99
1
ERA6.23
9
BB%13.3%
10
K%15.5%
8
xwOBA allowed0.340
24
Barrel allowed5.2%
83
Fastball velo96.9
86
Hard-hit allowed38.3%
50
Whiff%18.6%
16
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-01
Changeup Stuff+100
38
Fastball Stuff+104
60
Mithrandir Stuff+102
45
Sinker Stuff+105
73
Slider Stuff+95
11
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Erceg, Lucas · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.340 2026-08-21: 0.3392026-08-22: 0.3392026-08-23: 0.3392026-08-24: 0.3392026-08-25: 0.3392026-08-26: 0.3392026-08-27: 0.3402026-08-28: 0.3402026-08-29: 0.3402026-08-30: 0.3402026-08-31: 0.3402026-09-01: 0.340 2026-08-21 2026-09-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 29%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Erceg, Lucas · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 45%45%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Erceg, Lucas · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 29.2%Slider: 28.8%Sinker: 27.5%Changeup: 13.8%Cutter: 0.7% FF29% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 29%SL 29%SI 27%CH 14%FC 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Erceg, Lucas · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 29% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 97.0 mphFF97 mphSlider: 29% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 84.5 mphSL85 mphSinker: 27% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 96.8 mphSI97 mphChangeup: 14% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.4 mphCH89 mphCutter: 1% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.8 mphFC94 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 31.5% 147 104 limited sample
SL 28.5% 133 95 limited sample
SI 25.3% 118 105 limited sample
CH 13.9% 65 100 limited sample
FC 0.6% 3 68 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age31
Height6' 2"
Weight214 lb
Debut2023-05-19
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

3.2σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.440
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.340

Erceg’s wOBA-against sits at 0.440, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.340 — a gap of 0.100, 3.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 45 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

2026-04-20 vs BAL1 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-11 vs CWS0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-06 @ CLE0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-05 vs MIL2 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-01 vs MIN0 ER / 0 K0.2 IP