Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 27 |
| Height | 6' 1" |
| Weight | 226 lb |
| Debut | 2021-09-18 |
Player profile / Tampa Bay Rays
Ryan Vilade
RF · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 1", 226 lb · Age 27
Club Tampa Bay Rays
Position RF
Roster Active
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 49 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | .178 | .208 | .244 | .452 |
| 2025 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .077 | .200 | .077 | .277 |
| 2026 | 119 | 10 | 30 | 3 | 3 | .291 | .356 | .447 | .803 |
| 4 Seasons | 190 | 16 | 39 | 4 | 3 | .234 | .298 | .347 | .645 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
41
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.280 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.309 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.291 |
| Observed weight | 38% |
xwOBA
0.252
0.271
0.291
0.312
0.330
wOBA
0.369
0.395
0.424
0.453
0.479
ISO
0.119
0.148
0.181
0.214
0.243
K%
15.3%
18.3%
21.6%
24.9%
27.9%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.2%
16
-49 vs proj
Exit velocity88.6
52
Hard-hit%39.2%
47
xBA0.317
43
xSLG0.478
40
xwOBA0.309
49
BB%9.0%
53
+28 vs proj
Bat speed74.7
97
K%17.2%
78
+59 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.7 · RF
77
Arm Strength91.3 · RF
36
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
44
Range Runs-1.7 · RF
29
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.6 · RF
85
SB Success Rate100.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.0% · rebadged research
58
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.8% · rebadged research
34
Correct Decisions67.7% · rebadged research
64
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.299 · borderline
23
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.303 · insufficient sample
7
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.300 · validated thin sample
8
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.346 · insufficient sample
19
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339 · validated
50
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.348 · validated
78
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
49
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
80 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.007 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.122 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Vilade’s wOBA sits at 0.424, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.309 — a gap of 0.115, -3.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 134 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 3 | 2026-05-18 | Disciplined swing decisions drove the score |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.302 xwOBA | 7 HR | Projection |
| 2026-05-20 vs BAL0 HR | 0 RBI / 4 Ch | 0 E | 0-2 | 2 BB, R, SB |
| 2026-04-17 @ PIT0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-1 |
| 2026-04-15 @ CWS0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-1 |
| 2026-04-14 @ CWS0 HR | 1 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E | 3-5 | 2B, K, RBI |
| 2026-04-11 vs NYY0 HR | 0 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 |