Mithrandir Metrics
Player Cleveland Guardians Refreshed Oct 20 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Cleveland Guardians

Gavin Williams

P · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 6", 250 lb · Age 27

Cards
39
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Cleveland Guardians Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20243104.861616076.0791.37
20251253.0631310167.21731.27
20261483.7632320184.12481.11
4 Seasons32283.6295950510.05811.23
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-20
76
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
65
Arsenal6 metrics
74
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-10-20
ERA preseason3.66
ERA current pace3.76
ERA rolling p503.74
Observed weight78%
ERA
2.54 3.11 3.74 4.37 4.94
FIP
2.25 2.81 3.43 4.05 4.61
K%
30.1% 31.0% 32.1% 33.1% 34.0%
BB%
7.2% 7.7% 8.3% 8.8% 9.3%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-20
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.12
83
ERA3.76
60
BB%8.0%
63 +25 vs proj
K%34.1%
98 +29 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.295
73 +36 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.5%
10 -34 vs proj
Fastball velo97.5
91
Hard-hit allowed45.7%
7
Whiff%31.7%
96 +28 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-10-20
Curveball Stuff+103
59
Fastball Stuff+106
78
Mithrandir Stuff+105
78
Sinker Stuff+108
88
Slider Stuff+102
53
Cutter Stuff+105
86
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Williams, Gavin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.295 2026-10-09: 0.3012026-10-10: 0.3012026-10-11: 0.2982026-10-12: 0.2982026-10-13: 0.2982026-10-14: 0.2982026-10-15: 0.2982026-10-16: 0.2952026-10-17: 0.2952026-10-18: 0.2952026-10-19: 0.2952026-10-20: 0.295 2026-10-09 2026-10-20 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 29%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Williams, Gavin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 32%32%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Williams, Gavin · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 28.9%4-Seam Fastball: 27.9%Knuckle Curve: 22.3%Sinker: 15.2%Cutter: 5.7% ST29% · 88 mphprimary pitch ST 29%FF 28%KC 22%SI 15%FC 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Williams, Gavin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sweeper: 29% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 87.5 mphST88 mph4-Seam Fastball: 28% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 97.7 mphFF98 mphKnuckle Curve: 22% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 82.6 mphKC83 mphSinker: 15% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 97.0 mphSI97 mphCutter: 6% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 92.3 mphFC92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 28.8% 533 102 qualified
FB 27.7% 513 106 qualified
CB 22.4% 414 103 qualified
SI 14.9% 276 108 qualified
FC 6.1% 113 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age27
Height6' 6"
Weight250 lb
Debut2023-06-21
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.02
K% Δ+0.093

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.7σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.312
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.295

Williams’s wOBA-against sits at 0.312, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.295 — a gap of 0.017, 0.7 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 207 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching392026-10-15Sweeper played up through ST/FF tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

2026-04-13 @ STL2 ER / 4 K5.0 IP
2026-04-07 vs KC1 ER / 8 K5.2 IP
2026-04-01 @ LAD0 ER / 10 K7.0 IP
2026-03-27 @ SEA3 ER / 7 K5.0 IP