Mithrandir Metrics
Player Detroit Tigers Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Detroit Tigers

Tarik Skubal

P · Bats/Throws R/L · 6' 3", 240 lb · Age 29

Cards
19
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Detroit Tigers Position P Roster profile Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20241842.3931310192.02280.92
20251362.2131310195.12410.89
2026553.091313075.2890.95
7 Seasons59423.081501470842.19781.02
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
88
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
81
Arsenal6 metrics
88
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason2.67
ERA current pace3.09
ERA rolling p502.91
Observed weight57%
ERA
1.85 2.35 2.91 3.47 3.97
FIP
2.04 2.38 2.75 3.13 3.47
K%
26.4% 28.2% 30.3% 32.3% 34.1%
BB%
3.0% 3.6% 4.2% 4.8% 5.4%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.98
91
ERA3.09
74
BB%3.5%
100
K%29.7%
92
xwOBA allowed0.278
85
Barrel allowed7.2%
58
Fastball velo96.7
82
Hard-hit allowed37.2%
62
Whiff%28.8%
88
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-18
Changeup Stuff+105
73
Fastball Stuff+112
98
Mithrandir Stuff+110
98
Curveball Stuff+104
82
Sinker Stuff+106
83
Slider Stuff+110
95
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Skubal, Tarik · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.278 2026-07-07: 0.2822026-07-08: 0.2822026-07-09: 0.2792026-07-10: 0.2792026-07-11: 0.2792026-07-12: 0.2792026-07-13: 0.2792026-07-14: 0.2782026-07-15: 0.2782026-07-16: 0.2782026-07-17: 0.2782026-07-18: 0.278 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Skubal, Tarik · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 60%60%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Skubal, Tarik · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 37.1%Changeup: 24.9%Sinker: 19.4%Slider: 14.5%Curveball: 4.1% FF37% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 37%CH 25%SI 19%SL 15%CU 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Skubal, Tarik · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 37% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 96.7 mphFF97 mphChangeup: 25% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 87.3 mphCH87 mphSinker: 19% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 96.7 mphSI97 mphSlider: 15% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 89.3 mphSL89 mphCurveball: 4% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 80.3 mphCU80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 38.1% 304 112 qualified
CH 25.9% 207 105 qualified
SI 18.4% 147 106 limited sample
SL 13.5% 108 110 limited sample
CB 4.0% 32 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age29
Height6' 3"
Weight240 lb
Debut2020-08-18
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.08
K% Δ+0.010

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.3σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.317
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.278

Skubal’s wOBA-against sits at 0.317, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.278 — a gap of 0.039, 1.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 79 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching192026-07-12Four-Seam Fastball played up through SI/SL tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202628.7% K | 3.01 ERAProjection