Mithrandir Metrics
Player Baltimore Orioles Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Baltimore Orioles

Trevor Rogers

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 5", 230 lb · Age 28

Cards
17
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Baltimore Orioles Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20242114.9225250124.1971.58
2025931.8118180109.21030.90
2026674.481717090.1691.31
7 Seasons30443.921191190610.15901.30
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
44
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
43
Arsenal6 metrics
47
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.88
ERA current pace4.48
ERA rolling p504.26
Observed weight63%
ERA
3.27 3.74 4.26 4.78 5.24
FIP
3.09 3.52 4.01 4.49 4.93
K%
17.3% 18.3% 19.5% 20.6% 21.7%
BB%
6.1% 6.7% 7.4% 8.1% 8.8%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.32
50
ERA4.48
39
BB%7.6%
65
K%18.7%
25
xwOBA allowed0.320
44
Barrel allowed6.8%
64 +25 vs proj
Fastball velo93.4
31
Hard-hit allowed41.4%
32
Whiff%20.9%
33
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-18
Changeup Stuff+104
65
Fastball Stuff+105
72
Mithrandir Stuff+103
60
Cutter Stuff+98
14
Sinker Stuff+103
58
Slider Stuff+96
15
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Rogers, Trevor · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.320 2026-07-07: 0.3152026-07-08: 0.3152026-07-09: 0.3152026-07-10: 0.3152026-07-11: 0.3202026-07-12: 0.3202026-07-13: 0.3202026-07-14: 0.3202026-07-15: 0.3202026-07-16: 0.3202026-07-17: 0.3202026-07-18: 0.320 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Rogers, Trevor · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rogers, Trevor · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 43.9%Changeup: 22.2%Sweeper: 12.1%Cutter: 11.0%Sinker: 10.9% FF44% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 44%CH 22%ST 12%FC 11%SI 11% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rogers, Trevor · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 44% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 93.5 mphFF93 mphChangeup: 22% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 87.2 mphCH87 mphSweeper: 12% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 78.3 mphST78 mphCutter: 11% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 82.9 mphFC83 mphSinker: 11% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.1 mphSI93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 44.3% 456 105 qualified
CH 22.7% 234 104 qualified
SI 12.2% 126 103 limited sample
FC 10.7% 110 98 limited sample
SL 10.1% 104 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age28
Height6' 5"
Weight230 lb
Debut2020-08-25
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.67
K% Δ-0.021

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.0σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.346
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.320

Rogers’s wOBA-against sits at 0.346, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.320 — a gap of 0.027, 1.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 95 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching172026-07-09Four-Seam Fastball played up through CH/ST tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202620.8% K | 3.81 ERAProjection
2026-04-14 vs AZ4 ER / 6 K4.2 IP
2026-04-07 @ CWS2 ER / 6 K6.0 IP
2026-04-01 vs TEX2 ER / 3 K6.0 IP
2026-03-26 vs MIN0 ER / 5 K7.0 IP