Mithrandir Metrics
Player Baltimore Orioles Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Baltimore Orioles

Trevor Rogers

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 5", 230 lb · Age 28

Cards
25
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Baltimore Orioles Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20242114.9225250124.1971.58
2025931.8118180109.21030.90
2026994.3825250137.21211.25
7 Seasons33463.941271270657.26421.29
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
61
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
53
Arsenal6 metrics
53
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.26
62
ERA4.14
47
BB%6.1%
89
K%21.2%
44
xwOBA allowed0.304
62
Barrel allowed7.2%
54
Fastball velo93.7
36
Hard-hit allowed39.4%
42
Whiff%21.5%
39
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-01
Changeup Stuff+104
72
Fastball Stuff+107
82
Mithrandir Stuff+104
70
Cutter Stuff+98
16
Sinker Stuff+103
61
Slider Stuff+96
14
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Rogers, Trevor · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.304 2026-08-21: 0.3072026-08-22: 0.3072026-08-23: 0.3072026-08-24: 0.3072026-08-25: 0.3042026-08-26: 0.3042026-08-27: 0.3042026-08-28: 0.3042026-08-29: 0.3042026-08-30: 0.3042026-08-31: 0.3042026-09-01: 0.304 2026-08-21 2026-09-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 45%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Rogers, Trevor · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 58%58%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rogers, Trevor · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 45.4%Changeup: 21.1%Sweeper: 13.5%Sinker: 10.2%Cutter: 9.7% FF45% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 45%CH 21%ST 13%SI 10%FC 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rogers, Trevor · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 45% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 93.8 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 21% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 87.0 mphCH87 mphSweeper: 13% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 78.2 mphST78 mphSinker: 10% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.3 mphSI93 mphCutter: 10% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 83.0 mphFC83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 46.4% 654 107 qualified
CH 20.8% 293 104 qualified
SI 11.9% 168 103 limited sample
SL 11.3% 160 96 limited sample
FC 9.6% 135 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age28
Height6' 5"
Weight230 lb
Debut2020-08-25
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.3σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.336
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.304

Rogers’s wOBA-against sits at 0.336, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.304 — a gap of 0.032, 1.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 142 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching252026-08-27Four-Seam Fastball played up through ST/CH tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202620.8% K | 3.81 ERAProjection
2026-04-14 vs AZ4 ER / 6 K4.2 IP
2026-04-07 @ CWS2 ER / 6 K6.0 IP
2026-04-01 vs TEX2 ER / 3 K6.0 IP
2026-03-26 vs MIN0 ER / 5 K7.0 IP