Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 31 |
| Height | 6' 3" |
| Weight | 235 lb |
| Debut | 2021-04-09 |
Player profile / Seattle Mariners
Luke Raley
RF · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 3", 235 lb · Age 31
Club Seattle Mariners
Position RF
Roster Active
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 455 | 58 | 98 | 22 | 11 | .243 | .320 | .463 | .783 |
| 2025 | 219 | 23 | 37 | 4 | 2 | .202 | .319 | .311 | .630 |
| 2026 | 262 | 25 | 55 | 14 | 1 | .230 | .288 | .452 | .740 |
| 6 Seasons | 1486 | 174 | 303 | 62 | 28 | .231 | .314 | .430 | .744 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
84
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.297 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.343 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.323 |
| Observed weight | 56% |
xwOBA
0.296
0.309
0.323
0.337
0.350
wOBA
0.340
0.358
0.378
0.397
0.415
ISO
0.166
0.185
0.205
0.226
0.245
K%
27.0%
28.7%
30.5%
32.4%
34.1%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.0%
96
+41 vs proj
Exit velocity88.7
57
Hard-hit%45.5%
79
xBA0.392
95
xSLG0.757
97
xwOBA0.343
81
+23 vs proj
BB%5.3%
15
-16 vs proj
Bat speed73.1
89
K%31.7%
10
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.1 · RF
16
Arm Strength97.9 · RF
87
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · RF
11
Range Runs-4.4 · RF
8
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.5 · RF
56
Sprint Speed28.6 · RF
84
SB Success Rate50.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.4% · rebadged research
26
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.6% · rebadged research
80
Correct Decisions67.1% · rebadged research
60
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · borderline
62
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.282 · insufficient sample
38
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274 · validated thin sample
71
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.360 · insufficient sample
9
Resists FastballwOBA 0.393 · validated
3
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.349 · validated
77
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
41
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
110 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.029 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.063 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Raley’s wOBA sits at 0.378, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.343 — a gap of 0.034, -1.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 281 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goodman, Hunter COL · R | 0.56 | Barrel rateStrikeout rate | Player · Projection |
| Rooker, Brent ATH · R | 0.56 | Barrel rateStrikeout rate | Player · Projection |
| Caissie, Owen MIA · L | 0.55 | xwOBA on contactGround-ball rate | Player · Projection |
| Montgomery, Colson CWS · L | 0.49 | Isolated powerStrikeout rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 6 | 2026-06-25 | Impact contact was the main driver |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.315 xwOBA | 14 HR | Projection |
| 2026-05-20 vs CWS0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-2 | K |
| 2026-04-20 vs ATH0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-2 | 2 K |
| 2026-04-17 vs TEX0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-2 | K |
| 2026-04-15 @ SD1 HR | 2 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 4-5 | HR, 2B, K |
| 2026-04-14 @ SD0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | BB, K |