Mithrandir Metrics
Player Cincinnati Reds Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Cincinnati Reds

Andrew Abbott

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 0", 192 lb · Age 27

Cards
17
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Cincinnati Reds Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
202410103.7225250138.01141.30
20251072.8729290166.11491.15
2026443.951515079.2581.41
4 Seasons32273.5090900493.14411.27
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-15
27
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
30
Arsenal5 metrics
50
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-15
ERA preseason3.85
ERA current pace4.10
ERA rolling p504.00
Observed weight60%
ERA
3.12 3.54 4.00 4.46 4.88
FIP
4.10 4.42 4.77 5.13 5.45
K%
16.4% 17.5% 18.7% 19.9% 21.0%
BB%
7.3% 8.0% 8.8% 9.6% 10.3%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-15
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.51
19
ERA4.10
44
BB%10.3%
32 -39 vs proj
K%16.9%
13 -24 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.338
27 -19 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.6%
50
Fastball velo92.7
24
Hard-hit allowed42.2%
32
Whiff%20.8%
32
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-06-15
Fastball Stuff+102
46
Mithrandir Stuff+101
44
Slider Stuff+109
94
Changeup Stuff+94
10
Curveball Stuff+102
56
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Abbott, Andrew · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.338 2026-06-04: 0.3452026-06-05: 0.3452026-06-06: 0.3452026-06-07: 0.3452026-06-08: 0.3452026-06-09: 0.3452026-06-10: 0.3382026-06-11: 0.3382026-06-12: 0.3382026-06-13: 0.3382026-06-14: 0.3382026-06-15: 0.338 2026-06-04 2026-06-15 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Abbott, Andrew · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Abbott, Andrew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 48.0%Sweeper: 20.5%Changeup: 17.3%Curveball: 13.3%Cutter: 1.0% FF48% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 48%ST 20%CH 17%CU 13%FC 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Abbott, Andrew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 48% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 92.7 mphFF93 mphSweeper: 20% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 82.1 mphST82 mphChangeup: 17% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 86.0 mphCH86 mphCurveball: 13% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 51″ drop, 79.6 mphCU80 mphCutter: 1% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 89.2 mphFC89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 47.9% 515 102 qualified
SL 20.6% 221 109 qualified
CH 17.8% 191 94 limited sample
CB 13.6% 146 102 limited sample
FC 0.2% 2 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age27
Height6' 0"
Weight192 lb
Debut2023-06-05
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.03
K% Δ-0.039

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.7σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.387
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.338

Abbott’s wOBA-against sits at 0.387, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.338 — a gap of 0.048, 1.7 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 80 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching172026-05-274-Seam Fastball played up through FF/ST tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202620.8% K | 4.07 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 @ PHI1 ER / 3 K5.1 IP
2026-04-12 vs LAA7 ER / 1 K3.0 IP
2026-04-07 @ MIA2 ER / 2 K5.1 IP
2026-04-01 vs PIT4 ER / 5 K5.2 IP
2026-03-26 vs BOS0 ER / 4 K6.0 IP