Mithrandir Metrics
Player Los Angeles Dodgers Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Los Angeles Dodgers

Jack Dreyer

P · Bats/Throws R/L · 6' 2", 205 lb · Age 27

Cards
1
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Los Angeles Dodgers Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2025322.95675476.1741.05
2026412.93391040.0460.95
2 Seasons732.9410664116.11201.01
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
82
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
69
Arsenal4 metrics
78
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.84
ERA current pace3.03
ERA rolling p503.51
Observed weight40%
ERA
2.45 2.95 3.51 4.07 4.58
FIP
2.83 3.26 3.75 4.24 4.68
K%
22.7% 24.4% 26.2% 28.1% 29.7%
BB%
5.8% 6.7% 7.8% 8.9% 9.8%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.08
84
ERA3.03
75
BB%6.8%
78 +16 vs proj
K%29.0%
89 +33 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.275
86 +21 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.9%
62
Fastball velo93.8
39
Hard-hit allowed39.6%
46
Whiff%25.0%
66
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-17
Curveball Stuff+104
77
Fastball Stuff+109
92
Mithrandir Stuff+107
89
Slider Stuff+102
53
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Dreyer, Jack · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.275 2026-07-06: 0.2842026-07-07: 0.2802026-07-08: 0.2802026-07-09: 0.2792026-07-10: 0.2772026-07-11: 0.2772026-07-12: 0.2752026-07-13: 0.2752026-07-14: 0.2752026-07-15: 0.2752026-07-16: 0.2752026-07-17: 0.275 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 47%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Dreyer, Jack · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Dreyer, Jack · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 46.9%Slider: 39.2%Curveball: 13.9% FF47% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 47%SL 39%CU 14% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Dreyer, Jack · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 47% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 93.8 mphFF94 mphSlider: 39% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 88.7 mphSL89 mphCurveball: 14% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 59″ drop, 81.0 mphCU81 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 49.5% 194 109 limited sample
SL 40.3% 158 102 limited sample
CB 10.2% 40 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age27
Height6' 2"
Weight205 lb
Debut2025-03-19
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.84
K% Δ+0.058

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.2σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.318
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.275

Dreyer’s wOBA-against sits at 0.318, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.275 — a gap of 0.043, 1.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 39 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching12026-07-01Command and chase profile drove the outing
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202623.2% K | 3.87 ERAProjection
2026-04-17 @ COL0 ER / 3 K2.0 IP
2026-04-12 vs TEX0 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-11 vs TEX0 ER / 3 K1.0 IP
2026-04-08 @ TOR2 ER / 0 K0.1 IP
2026-04-05 @ WSH0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP