Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	185	19	41	3	3	.247	.321	.343	.664
2025	266	31	53	7	4	.230	.323	.383	.706
2026	162	18	41	2	7	.285	.342	.403	.745
3 Seasons	613	68	135	12	14	.250	.327	.376	.703

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-12

73

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

61

Defense4 metrics

37

Speed4 metrics

71

Plate skills10 metrics

56

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-12

xwOBA preseason	0.275
xwOBA current pace	0.356
xwOBA rolling p50	0.311
Observed weight	44%

xwOBA

0.274 0.292 0.311 0.330 0.347

wOBA

0.317 0.339 0.364 0.388 0.411

ISO

0.088 0.107 0.128 0.149 0.168

K%

21.9% 23.6% 25.5% 27.4% 29.1%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-12

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%4.0%

35

Exit velocity89.4

63

Hard-hit%47.0%

82 +31 vs proj

xBA0.419

99

xSLG0.619

79

xwOBA0.356

82 +50 vs proj

BB%5.7%

17 -23 vs proj

Bat speed69.9

55

K%23.6%

40 +16 vs proj

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs-0.5 · 3B

9

Arm Strength95.6 · 3B

96

Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 3B

28

Range Runs-2.7 · 3B

14

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs1.8 · 3B

91

Bolts2.0 · 3B

36

SB Success Rate87.5% · 3B

74

Sprint Speed28.5 · 3B

82

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-06-12

Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.8% · rebadged research

41

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.1% · rebadged research

83

Correct Decisions70.9% · rebadged research

90

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.286 · borderline

46

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · insufficient sample

37

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.280 · validated thin sample

41

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · insufficient sample

67

Resists FastballwOBA 0.359 · validated

18

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.346 · validated

81

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103

59

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Blaze Alexander's tools (86) outpace production (84) by 3 points. Primary finding: expanding the zone too aggressively — generating weak contact and whiffs on pitcher's pitches. Also flagged: Contact-Discipline Mismatch.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Chase Rate Problem

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment

Protected takes / Chase risk

Contact-Discipline Mismatch

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

100 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.2σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.364

xwOBA (deserved)0.356

Alexander’s wOBA sits at 0.364, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.356 — a gap of 0.008, -0.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 174 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	2	2026-05-27	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.291 xwOBA \| 10 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 @ TB0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| K
2026-04-20 @ KC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-5 \| 3 K, R
2026-04-17 @ CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-0
2026-04-15 vs AZ0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| BB, K, SB
2026-04-14 vs AZ0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| K

Age	27
Height	5' 11"
Weight	200 lb
Debut	2024-03-28

xwOBA Δ	+0.065
wOBA Δ	+0.073

Hitter Projections 20260.291 xwOBA \| 10 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 @ TB0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| K
2026-04-20 @ KC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-5 \| 3 K, R
2026-04-17 @ CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-0
2026-04-15 vs AZ0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| BB, K, SB
2026-04-14 vs AZ0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| K

Blaze Alexander

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Module shelf

Available detail