Mithrandir Metrics
Player Kansas City Royals Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Kansas City Royals

Tyler Tolbert

SS · Bats/Throws R/R · 5' 10", 185 lb · Age 28

Cards
12
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Kansas City Royals Position SS Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections
PARHHRSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2025571914121.280.321.380.701
20261323035320.307.375.430.805
2 Seasons1894949441.299.359.415.774
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
20
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
28
Defense4 metrics
42
Speed4 metrics
78
Plate skills11 metrics
48
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.1%
14
Exit velocity80.2
2
Hard-hit%24.8%
7
xBA0.310
40
xSLG0.402
14
xwOBA0.298
43
BB%9.2%
58
Bat speed62.9
3
K%19.0%
72
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.5 · SS
11
Arm Strength89.9 · SS
72
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · SS
28
Range Runs0.6 · SS
60
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.8 · SS
79
Bolts6.0 · SS
53
SB Success Rate94.7% · SS
86
Sprint Speed29.3 · SS
94
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.0% · rebadged research
73
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.8% · rebadged research
26
Correct Decisions67.8% · rebadged research
69
Mithrandir Stuff+65
2
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · borderline
35
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · insufficient sample
42
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279 · validated thin sample
48
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.328 · insufficient sample
48
Resists FastballwOBA 0.322 · validated
79
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.357 · validated
45
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
60
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Tolbert, Tyler · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.303 0.298 2026-08-21: 0.3062026-08-22: 0.3062026-08-23: 0.3062026-08-24: 0.3062026-08-25: 0.3012026-08-26: 0.3012026-08-27: 0.2952026-08-28: 0.2992026-08-29: 0.2992026-08-30: 0.3012026-08-31: 0.2982026-09-01: 0.298 2026-08-21 2026-09-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

1Pitches 2026Season 100%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Tolbert, Tyler · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 50%50%Chase: 27%27%Whiff: 29%29%Zone contact: 83%83%Contact: 71%71%Hard hit: 25%25% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Tolbert, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot Eephus: 100.0% EP100% · 47 mphprimary pitch EP 100% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Tolbert, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot 6″12″18″24″ Eephus: 100% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 10″ drop, 46.6 mphEP47 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CB 50.0% 5 82 limited sample
SL 50.0% 5 77 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age28
Height5' 10"
Weight185 lb
Debut2025-03-31
Live layer

Delta / regression

xwOBA Δ--
wOBA Δ--

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-3.3σ gap
wOBA (actual)0.417
xwOBA (deserved)0.298

Tolbert’s wOBA sits at 0.417, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.298 — a gap of 0.119, -3.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 142 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Fielding122026-08-271 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.218
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.299 xwOBA | 6 HRProjection
2026-08-15 @ LAA0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E0-2 | K
2026-04-15 @ DET0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E0-0
2026-04-14 @ DET0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E0-2
2026-04-08 @ CLE0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E0 H in 0 AB
2026-04-05 vs MIL0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E0-0 | CS