Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 25 |
| Height | 6' 1" |
| Weight | 200 lb |
| Debut | 2024-03-20 |
Player profile / Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
Graham Pauley
3B · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 1", 200 lb · Age 25
Club Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
Position 3B
Roster profile
Status Out / inactive
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 32 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | .125 | .125 | .313 | .438 |
| 2025 | 184 | 18 | 36 | 4 | 2 | .224 | .311 | .366 | .677 |
| 2026 | 97 | 9 | 16 | 1 | 1 | .176 | .219 | .297 | .516 |
| 3 Seasons | 313 | 31 | 56 | 7 | 3 | .197 | .264 | .338 | .602 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
6
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.301 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.209 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.271 |
| Observed weight | 33% |
xwOBA
0.235
0.252
0.271
0.290
0.307
wOBA
0.206
0.232
0.260
0.289
0.315
ISO
0.123
0.144
0.167
0.191
0.212
K%
18.7%
20.8%
23.2%
25.6%
27.7%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.8%
20
-41 vs proj
Exit velocity82.9
7
Hard-hit%21.6%
4
-48 vs proj
xBA0.224
1
xSLG0.345
3
xwOBA0.209
1
-58 vs proj
BB%6.5%
25
-36 vs proj
Bat speed69.9
52
K%23.4%
43
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 3B
68
Range Runs0.7 · 3B
58
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.4 · 3B
25
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.8% · rebadged research
57
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.9% · rebadged research
41
Correct Decisions64.8% · rebadged research
35
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.278 · borderline
74
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.277 · insufficient sample
58
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.264 · validated thin sample
89
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.318 · insufficient sample
86
Resists FastballwOBA 0.320 · validated
83
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358 · validated
53
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
51
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
72 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.107 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.055 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Pauley’s wOBA sits at 0.260, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.209 — a gap of 0.051, -1.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 107 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 1 | 2025-08-13 | Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| No projection links or recent game log rows are available yet. |