Mithrandir Metrics
Player St. Louis Cardinals Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / St. Louis Cardinals

Matt Svanson

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 5", 235 lb · Age 27

Cards
1
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club St. Louis Cardinals Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2025401.94390060.1680.88
2026226.58361039.2401.64
2 Seasons623.787510100.01081.18
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
21
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
29
Arsenal4 metrics
46
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason3.94
ERA current pace6.58
ERA rolling p505.11
Observed weight44%
ERA
3.34 4.18 5.11 6.04 6.87
FIP
3.26 3.57 3.91 4.25 4.56
K%
19.8% 21.8% 24.1% 26.4% 28.5%
BB%
6.6% 7.9% 9.2% 10.6% 11.8%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.56
13
ERA6.58
6
BB%9.9%
33
K%21.5%
42 -25 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.362
9 -39 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.0%
61 +22 vs proj
Fastball velo96.2
76
Hard-hit allowed45.0%
13
Whiff%16.1%
5 -27 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-18
Sinker Stuff+100
33
Cutter Stuff+104
72
Mithrandir Stuff+102
54
Slider Stuff+98
25
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Svanson, Matt · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.362 2026-07-07: 0.3652026-07-08: 0.3652026-07-09: 0.3652026-07-10: 0.3652026-07-11: 0.3622026-07-12: 0.3622026-07-13: 0.3622026-07-14: 0.3622026-07-15: 0.3622026-07-16: 0.3622026-07-17: 0.3622026-07-18: 0.362 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 45%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Svanson, Matt · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 16%16%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Svanson, Matt · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 45.0%Sweeper: 32.6%Cutter: 21.6%4-Seam Fastball: 0.8% SI45% · 96 mphprimary pitch SI 45%ST 33%FC 22%FF 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Svanson, Matt · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ Sinker: 45% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 96.2 mphSI96 mphSweeper: 33% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 86.7 mphST87 mphCutter: 22% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 92.0 mphFC92 mph4-Seam Fastball: 1% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 97.0 mphFF97 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 47.6% 229 100 qualified
SL 31.2% 150 98 limited sample
FC 21.2% 102 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age27
Height6' 5"
Weight235 lb
Debut2025-04-17
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+3.01
K% Δ-0.034

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.0σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.362
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.362

Svanson’s wOBA-against sits at 0.362, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.362 — a gap of 0.000, -0.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 42 IP. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching12026-07-07Command and chase profile drove the outing
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202624.9% K | 3.57 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 vs PIT4 ER / 1 K0.2 IP
2026-04-20 @ MIA0 ER / 0 K1.1 IP
2026-04-14 vs CLE0 ER / 2 K1.0 IP
2026-04-11 vs BOS5 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-08 @ WSH0 ER / 1 K1.2 IP