Mithrandir Metrics
Player Milwaukee Brewers Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Milwaukee Brewers

Chad Patrick

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 1", 217 lb · Age 27

Cards
9
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Milwaukee Brewers Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2025383.5327230119.21271.28
2026543.51306474.1621.20
2 Seasons8123.5357294194.01891.25
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
45
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
47
Arsenal5 metrics
23
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.51
ERA current pace3.56
ERA rolling p503.96
Observed weight58%
ERA
2.92 3.41 3.96 4.50 4.99
FIP
3.87 4.14 4.44 4.74 5.01
K%
19.5% 20.7% 22.0% 23.2% 24.4%
BB%
7.5% 8.2% 9.0% 9.9% 10.6%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.32
51
ERA3.56
61
BB%9.8%
35 -28 vs proj
K%19.9%
32 -17 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.315
49
Barrel allowed8.1%
43
Fastball velo95.0
59
Hard-hit allowed39.6%
46
Whiff%22.6%
47 +16 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-17
Cutter Stuff+99
29
Fastball Stuff+100
31
Mithrandir Stuff+99
24
Sinker Stuff+99
27
Slider Stuff+87
1
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Patrick, Chad · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.315 2026-07-06: 0.3192026-07-07: 0.3192026-07-08: 0.3132026-07-09: 0.3132026-07-10: 0.3132026-07-11: 0.3152026-07-12: 0.3152026-07-13: 0.3152026-07-14: 0.3152026-07-15: 0.3152026-07-16: 0.3152026-07-17: 0.315 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 42%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Patrick, Chad · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Patrick, Chad · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 41.6%4-Seam Fastball: 25.3%Sinker: 21.5%Slurve: 10.1%Changeup: 1.6% FC42% · 90 mphprimary pitch FC 42%FF 25%SI 22%SV 10%CH 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Patrick, Chad · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Cutter: 42% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 89.5 mphFC90 mph4-Seam Fastball: 25% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 95.0 mphFF95 mphSinker: 22% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 95.0 mphSI95 mphSlurve: 10% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 85.5 mphSV86 mphChangeup: 2% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.4 mphCH89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 42.3% 347 99 qualified
FB 24.9% 204 100 qualified
SI 20.5% 168 99 limited sample
SL 11.7% 96 87 limited sample
CH 0.6% 5 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age27
Height6' 1"
Weight217 lb
Debut2025-03-29
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.56
K% Δ-0.025

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

2.1σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.374
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.315

Patrick’s wOBA-against sits at 0.374, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.315 — a gap of 0.059, 2.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 80 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching92026-05-27Cutter played up through FC/SI tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202622.3% K | 4.12 ERAProjection
2026-04-15 vs TOR1 ER / 2 K6.2 IP
2026-04-04 @ KC0 ER / 3 K5.0 IP