Mithrandir Metrics
Player Pittsburgh Pirates Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Pittsburgh Pirates

Paul Skenes

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 6", 260 lb · Age 24

Cards
26
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Pittsburgh Pirates Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20241131.9623230133.01700.95
202510101.9732320187.22160.95
20269113.9728280149.21791.16
3 Seasons30242.6083830470.15651.01
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
75
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
70
Arsenal6 metrics
59
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-03
ERA preseason3.11
ERA current pace3.97
ERA rolling p503.73
Observed weight73%
ERA
2.31 2.98 3.73 4.49 5.16
FIP
2.24 2.61 3.02 3.44 3.81
K%
26.7% 27.9% 29.2% 30.5% 31.6%
BB%
5.8% 6.3% 6.9% 7.5% 8.0%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.17
77
ERA3.97
53
BB%7.4%
71
K%28.9%
90
xwOBA allowed0.279
85
Barrel allowed7.3%
52
Fastball velo96.8
84
Hard-hit allowed38.7%
48
Whiff%25.4%
69
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-03
Changeup Stuff+96
16
Fastball Stuff+104
61
Mithrandir Stuff+104
70
Sinker Stuff+108
91
Slider Stuff+104
67
Curveball Stuff+102
50
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Skenes, Paul · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.279 2026-08-23: 0.2742026-08-24: 0.2742026-08-25: 0.2772026-08-26: 0.2772026-08-27: 0.2752026-08-28: 0.2752026-08-29: 0.2752026-08-30: 0.2752026-08-31: 0.2752026-09-01: 0.2752026-09-02: 0.2792026-09-03: 0.279 2026-08-23 2026-09-03 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 41%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Skenes, Paul · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Skenes, Paul · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 40.7%Sweeper: 15.6%Changeup: 12.6%Sinker: 12.2%Split-Finger: 10.8%Slider: 7.4% FF41% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 41%ST 16%CH 13%SI 12%FS 11%SL 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Skenes, Paul · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 41% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 96.8 mphFF97 mphSweeper: 16% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 84.3 mphST84 mphChangeup: 13% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 88.7 mphCH89 mphSinker: 12% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 96.6 mphSI97 mphSplit-Finger: 11% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 93.2 mphFS93 mphSlider: 7% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 86.7 mphSL87 mphCurveball: 1% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 49″ drop, 81.2 mphCU81 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 43.8% 640 104 qualified
SL 24.6% 360 104 qualified
SI 15.6% 228 108 qualified
CH 15.2% 222 96 qualified
CB 0.8% 11 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age24
Height6' 6"
Weight260 lb
Debut2024-05-11
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.84
K% Δ+0.021

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.2σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.310
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.279

Skenes’s wOBA-against sits at 0.310, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.279 — a gap of 0.031, 1.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 152 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching262026-09-01Four-Seam Fastball played up through SI/ST tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202626.8% K | 3.13 ERAProjection
2026-04-13 vs WSH1 ER / 6 K6.0 IP
2026-04-07 vs SD1 ER / 6 K6.1 IP
2026-04-01 @ CIN1 ER / 5 K5.0 IP
2026-03-26 @ NYM5 ER / 1 K0.2 IP