Mithrandir Metrics
Player Washington Nationals Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Washington Nationals

Brad Lord

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 3", 210 lb · Age 26

Cards
3
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Washington Nationals Position P Roster Injured 15-Day Status IL-15
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20255104.3448190130.21081.29
2026523.88271158.0521.22
2 Seasons10124.2075201188.21601.27
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
53
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
50
Arsenal5 metrics
68
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.97
ERA current pace3.88
ERA rolling p503.92
Observed weight53%
ERA
2.87 3.37 3.92 4.47 4.97
FIP
3.39 3.73 4.11 4.48 4.82
K%
18.3% 19.6% 21.0% 22.4% 23.7%
BB%
6.4% 7.1% 8.0% 8.8% 9.6%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.21
69
ERA3.88
53
BB%8.5%
53 -17 vs proj
K%21.4%
42
xwOBA allowed0.316
47 +16 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.5%
80 +32 vs proj
Fastball velo94.4
49
Hard-hit allowed40.3%
41
Whiff%18.7%
16
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+105
75
Mithrandir Stuff+106
85
Slider Stuff+102
49
Changeup Stuff+100
34
Sinker Stuff+109
96
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lord, Brad · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.316 2026-07-06: 0.3072026-07-07: 0.3162026-07-08: 0.3162026-07-09: 0.3162026-07-10: 0.3162026-07-11: 0.3162026-07-12: 0.3162026-07-13: 0.3162026-07-14: 0.3162026-07-15: 0.3162026-07-16: 0.3162026-07-17: 0.316 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 36%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lord, Brad · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lord, Brad · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 36.5%Sinker: 23.1%Slider: 20.5%Sweeper: 14.4%Changeup: 5.6% FF36% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 36%SI 23%SL 20%ST 14%CH 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lord, Brad · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 36% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 94.5 mphFF95 mphSinker: 23% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 94.3 mphSI94 mphSlider: 20% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 85.2 mphSL85 mphSweeper: 14% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 83.2 mphST83 mphChangeup: 6% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 85.9 mphCH86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 36.1% 282 105 qualified
SL 35.2% 275 102 qualified
SI 22.8% 178 109 limited sample
CH 5.9% 46 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age26
Height6' 3"
Weight210 lb
Debut2025-03-30
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.52
K% Δ+0.021

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.0σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.346
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.316

Lord’s wOBA-against sits at 0.346, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.316 — a gap of 0.030, 1.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 63 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching32026-07-01Sinker played up through FF/SL tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202619.3% K | 4.40 ERAProjection
2026-04-20 vs ATL1 ER / 1 K2.2 IP
2026-04-15 @ PIT0 ER / 2 K3.0 IP
2026-04-13 @ PIT3 ER / 1 K0.2 IP
2026-04-11 @ MIL0 ER / 3 K1.2 IP
2026-04-08 vs STL1 ER / 2 K3.0 IP