Mithrandir Metrics
Player Washington Nationals Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Washington Nationals

Brad Lord

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 3", 210 lb · Age 26

Cards
7
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Washington Nationals Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20255104.3448190130.21081.29
2026523.58345173.0701.18
2 Seasons10124.0782241203.21781.25
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
55
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
52
Arsenal5 metrics
61
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-02
ERA preseason3.98
ERA current pace3.88
ERA rolling p503.92
Observed weight57%
ERA
2.87 3.37 3.92 4.47 4.97
FIP
3.39 3.73 4.10 4.48 4.82
K%
18.7% 19.9% 21.3% 22.7% 23.9%
BB%
7.0% 7.7% 8.5% 9.4% 10.1%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-02
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.18
76
ERA3.88
54
BB%9.4%
45 -26 vs proj
K%21.9%
48 +16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.313
50 +21 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.7%
77 +32 vs proj
Fastball velo94.5
51
Hard-hit allowed37.3%
58
Whiff%18.1%
13
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-02
Fastball Stuff+104
65
Mithrandir Stuff+105
81
Sinker Stuff+110
98
Slider Stuff+101
39
Changeup Stuff+98
22
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lord, Brad · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.313 2026-08-22: 0.3202026-08-23: 0.3202026-08-24: 0.3202026-08-25: 0.3152026-08-26: 0.3152026-08-27: 0.3112026-08-28: 0.3112026-08-29: 0.3112026-08-30: 0.3132026-08-31: 0.3132026-09-01: 0.3132026-09-02: 0.313 2026-08-22 2026-09-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lord, Brad · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lord, Brad · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 37.4%Sinker: 22.8%Slider: 20.8%Sweeper: 13.6%Changeup: 5.4% FF37% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 37%SI 23%SL 21%ST 14%CH 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lord, Brad · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 37% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 94.6 mphFF95 mphSinker: 23% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 94.4 mphSI94 mphSlider: 21% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 85.3 mphSL85 mphSweeper: 14% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 83.2 mphST83 mphChangeup: 5% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 86.1 mphCH86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 37.5% 335 104 qualified
SL 34.2% 305 101 qualified
SI 22.8% 204 110 qualified
CH 5.5% 49 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age26
Height6' 3"
Weight210 lb
Debut2025-03-30
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.52
K% Δ+0.024

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.7σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.332
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.313

Lord’s wOBA-against sits at 0.332, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.313 — a gap of 0.019, 0.7 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 75 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching72026-09-02Four-Seam Fastball played up through FF/SL tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202619.3% K | 4.40 ERAProjection
2026-08-15 @ NYM2 ER / 1 K0.2 IP
2026-04-20 vs ATL1 ER / 1 K2.2 IP
2026-04-15 @ PIT0 ER / 2 K3.0 IP
2026-04-13 @ PIT3 ER / 1 K0.2 IP
2026-04-11 @ MIL0 ER / 3 K1.2 IP