Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 22 |
| Height | 6' 2" |
| Weight | 234 lb |
| Debut | 2026-05-22 |
Player profile / Pittsburgh Pirates
Esmerlyn Valdez
RF · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 2", 234 lb · Age 22
Club Pittsburgh Pirates
Position RF
Roster Active
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 105 | 21 | 29 | 10 | 0 | .309 | .371 | .713 | 1.084 |
| 1 Seasons | 105 | 21 | 29 | 10 | 0 | .309 | .371 | .713 | 1.084 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
96
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.276 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.374 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.308 |
| Observed weight | 32% |
xwOBA
0.238
0.271
0.308
0.345
0.378
wOBA
0.384
0.414
0.447
0.479
0.509
ISO
0.161
0.189
0.220
0.251
0.279
K%
15.8%
20.5%
25.6%
30.8%
35.5%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%16.2%
100
+66 vs proj
Exit velocity92.1
93
Hard-hit%52.6%
95
+53 vs proj
xBA0.402
96
xSLG0.973
100
xwOBA0.374
94
+51 vs proj
BB%9.5%
62
+30 vs proj
Bat speed72.4
82
K%36.2%
2
-37 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength87.8 · RF
12
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
46
Arm Runs-1.1 · RF
Small sample
Range Runs2.1 · RF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.1 · RF
70
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.7% · rebadged research
72
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.3% · rebadged research
68
Correct Decisions68.1% · rebadged research
70
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.305 · borderline
17
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · insufficient sample
43
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.286 · validated thin sample
33
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.334 · insufficient sample
42
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339 · validated
49
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.357 · validated
55
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
76
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
22 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.073 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.146 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Valdez’s wOBA sits at 0.447, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.374 — a gap of 0.073, -1.9 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 105 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 1 | 2026-06-28 | Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.301 xwOBA | 6 HR | Projection |