Mithrandir Metrics
Player Boston Red Sox Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Boston Red Sox

Payton Tolle

P profile with live context, projection links, and Mithrandir card history when available.

Cards
6
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Boston Red Sox Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.86
ERA current pace2.46
ERA rolling p503.27
Observed weight42%
ERA
2.06 2.63 3.27 3.90 4.48
FIP
2.68 3.08 3.52 3.97 4.37
K%
20.6% 22.8% 25.3% 27.9% 30.1%
BB%
6.2% 7.2% 8.3% 9.4% 10.4%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%6.2%
83 +46 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.3%
80 +25 vs proj
Fastball velo95.9
75
Hard-hit allowed36.3%
69
K%28.8%
87 +35 vs proj
Whiff%24.9%
65
xwOBA allowed0.237
98 +39 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+106
83
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Tolle, Payton · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.2502026-05-19: 0.2502026-05-21: 0.2502026-05-23: 0.2372026-05-24: 0.2372026-05-25: 0.2372026-05-26: 0.2372026-05-28: 0.2372026-05-29: 0.2372026-05-30: 0.2372026-05-31: 0.2372026-06-01: 0.237 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 46%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Tolle, Payton · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 53%53%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Tolle, Payton · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 46.0%Sinker: 24.0%Cutter: 16.4%Curveball: 10.1%Changeup: 3.6% MIX FF 46%SI 24%FC 16%CU 10%CH 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Tolle, Payton · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.5, IVB 1.2FFSI: HB -0.4, IVB 1.8SIFC: HB 0.2, IVB 2.3FCCU: HB 0.4, IVB 3.8CUCH: HB -0.9, IVB 2.8CH horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 44.8% 222 106 qualified
SI 24.2% 120 104 limited sample
FC 16.0% 79 104 limited sample
CB 11.1% 55 103 limited sample
CH 3.8% 19 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age23
Height6' 6"
Weight250 lb
Debut2025-08-29
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-1.90
K% Δ+0.064

positive regression

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching62026-05-224-Seam Fastball played up through SI/FC tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202622.4% K | 4.36 ERAProjection