Mithrandir Metrics
Player Minnesota Twins Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Minnesota Twins

Zebby Matthews

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 5", 225 lb · Age 26

Cards
18
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Minnesota Twins Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024146.6999037.2431.65
2025565.561616079.1881.49
2026984.5819190112.0931.26
3 Seasons15185.2744440229.02241.40
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
49
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
41
Arsenal7 metrics
68
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-03
ERA preseason4.41
ERA current pace4.58
ERA rolling p504.52
Observed weight67%
ERA
3.26 3.86 4.52 5.19 5.79
FIP
3.33 3.84 4.41 4.97 5.48
K%
18.0% 19.1% 20.4% 21.7% 22.8%
BB%
5.3% 5.8% 6.5% 7.1% 7.6%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.25
64
ERA4.58
36
BB%6.6%
83
K%19.3%
30 -29 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.326
35 -25 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.7%
10 -31 vs proj
Fastball velo95.2
61
Hard-hit allowed41.3%
31
Whiff%19.8%
24 -38 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-03
Fastball Stuff+105
69
Mithrandir Stuff+104
68
Slider Stuff+103
56
Changeup Stuff+107
83
Curveball Stuff+101
28
Cutter Stuff+106
91
Sinker Stuff+106
81
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Matthews, Zebby · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.326 2026-08-23: 0.3322026-08-24: 0.3322026-08-25: 0.3282026-08-26: 0.3282026-08-27: 0.3282026-08-28: 0.3282026-08-29: 0.3282026-08-30: 0.3282026-08-31: 0.3262026-09-01: 0.3262026-09-02: 0.3262026-09-03: 0.326 2026-08-23 2026-09-03 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 36%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Matthews, Zebby · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Matthews, Zebby · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 36.2%Slider: 22.1%Changeup: 12.4%Cutter: 12.1%Curveball: 11.7%Sinker: 5.2% FF36% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 36%SL 22%CH 12%FC 12%CU 12%SI 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Matthews, Zebby · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 36% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 95.2 mphFF95 mphSlider: 22% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 87.1 mphSL87 mphChangeup: 12% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.8 mphCH87 mphCutter: 12% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 90.7 mphFC91 mphCurveball: 12% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 79.9 mphCU80 mphSinker: 5% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 95.1 mphSI95 mphSplit-Finger: 0% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 83.5 mphFS83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 36.3% 352 105 qualified
SL 21.5% 209 103 qualified
CH 13.4% 130 107 limited sample
CB 12.8% 124 101 limited sample
FC 11.2% 109 106 limited sample
SI 4.8% 47 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age26
Height6' 5"
Weight225 lb
Debut2024-08-13
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.16
K% Δ-0.041

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.5σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.339
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.326

Matthews’s wOBA-against sits at 0.339, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.326 — a gap of 0.013, 0.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 116 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching182026-08-30Four-Seam Fastball played up through FF/SL tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

No projection links or recent game log rows are available yet.