Mithrandir Metrics
Player Los Angeles Dodgers Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Los Angeles Dodgers

Roki Sasaki

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 2", 187 lb · Age 24

Cards
17
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Los Angeles Dodgers Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2025114.46108036.1281.43
2026354.981717086.2851.34
2 Seasons464.8327250123.01131.37
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
30
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
36
Arsenal3 metrics
62
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.16
ERA current pace5.33
ERA rolling p504.88
Observed weight62%
ERA
3.42 4.11 4.88 5.65 6.34
FIP
4.47 4.88 5.33 5.78 6.19
K%
18.6% 20.1% 21.7% 23.3% 24.8%
BB%
9.2% 10.1% 11.1% 12.0% 12.9%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.45
28
ERA5.33
18
BB%11.2%
23
K%22.7%
51 +18 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.332
30
Barrel allowed13.4%
3 -30 vs proj
Fastball velo97.5
92
Hard-hit allowed45.1%
12
Whiff%25.7%
71 +24 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-18
Fastball Stuff+103
54
Mithrandir Stuff+104
68
Slider Stuff+104
65
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Sasaki, Roki · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.332 2026-07-07: 0.3362026-07-08: 0.3362026-07-09: 0.3362026-07-10: 0.3322026-07-11: 0.3322026-07-12: 0.3322026-07-13: 0.3322026-07-14: 0.3322026-07-15: 0.3322026-07-16: 0.3322026-07-17: 0.3322026-07-18: 0.332 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 43%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Sasaki, Roki · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sasaki, Roki · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 43.4%Split-Finger: 23.2%Slider: 21.2%Forkball: 11.7%Sinker: 0.6% FF43% · 98 mphprimary pitch FF 43%FS 23%SL 21%FO 12%SI 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sasaki, Roki · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 43% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 97.6 mphFF98 mphSplit-Finger: 23% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 90.1 mphFS90 mphSlider: 21% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 86.6 mphSL87 mphForkball: 12% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 85.3 mphFO85 mphSinker: 1% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 97.1 mphSI97 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 66.8% 429 103 qualified
SL 33.2% 213 104 qualified
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age24
Height6' 2"
Weight187 lb
Debut2025-03-19
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.64
K% Δ+0.027

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

2.4σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.400
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.332

Sasaki’s wOBA-against sits at 0.400, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.332 — a gap of 0.067, 2.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 86 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching172026-07-17Four-Seam Fastball played up through FF/FS tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202620.0% K | 4.69 ERAProjection
2026-04-12 vs TEX2 ER / 6 K4.0 IP
2026-04-05 @ WSH6 ER / 5 K5.0 IP
2026-03-30 vs CLE1 ER / 4 K4.0 IP