Mithrandir Metrics
Player BOS Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / BOS

Connelly Early

Player · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 3", 195 lb · Age 24

Cards
17
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club BOS Position -- Roster profile Status IL-60
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2025122.3344019.1291.09
2026753.441717091.2931.25
2 Seasons873.2421210111.01221.23
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
59
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
46
Arsenal6 metrics
40
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

Pending

Rolling player projection appears after current-season Statcast and projection joins refresh.

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-01
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.22
69
ERA3.44
68
BB%8.8%
52
K%24.4%
66
xwOBA allowed0.320
41
Barrel allowed10.4%
13
Fastball velo93.4
32
Hard-hit allowed41.9%
26
Whiff%22.3%
46
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-01
Changeup Stuff+104
68
Fastball Stuff+103
52
Mithrandir Stuff+101
40
Sinker Stuff+98
23
Curveball Stuff+101
28
Slider Stuff+99
28
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Early, Connelly · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.320 2026-08-21: 0.3202026-08-22: 0.3202026-08-23: 0.3202026-08-24: 0.3202026-08-25: 0.3202026-08-26: 0.3202026-08-27: 0.3202026-08-28: 0.3202026-08-29: 0.3202026-08-30: 0.3202026-08-31: 0.3202026-09-01: 0.320 2026-08-21 2026-09-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 35%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Early, Connelly · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Early, Connelly · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 34.7%Sinker: 19.9%Changeup: 18.1%Curveball: 11.0%Slider: 8.7%Sweeper: 7.6% FF35% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 35%SI 20%CH 18%CU 11%SL 9%ST 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Early, Connelly · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 35% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 94.0 mphFF94 mphSinker: 20% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 92.4 mphSI92 mphChangeup: 18% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 83.7 mphCH84 mphCurveball: 11% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 80.1 mphCU80 mphSlider: 9% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 87.2 mphSL87 mphSweeper: 8% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 82.5 mphST83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 34.3% 393 103 qualified
CH 20.1% 230 104 qualified
SI 18.8% 216 98 qualified
SL 15.3% 175 99 limited sample
CB 11.6% 133 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

MLB bio context is unavailable.
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ--
K% Δ--

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.5σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.334
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.320

Early’s wOBA-against sits at 0.334, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.320 — a gap of 0.014, 0.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 97 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching172026-06-30Sinker played up through SI/ST tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

No projection links or recent game log rows are available yet.