The Mirror / Record auto-graded
Every call, graded. No exceptions.
Every pregame simulation we publish gets graded against the final score automatically. Rows are written once and never edited — wins and losses alike. Tracking since 2026-06-10.
Cumulative
2026-06-10 → 2026-09-09
416–333winner picks
55.5%pick accuracy
0.246Brier (0.25 = coin flip)
83–71totals vs market line
749games graded
Game by game
The ledger
| Date | Game | Pick | Conf | Result | Sim total | Mkt | Actual | O/U call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | TOR @ ATH | TOR | 57% | ✗ ATH | 7.9 | -- | 2 | -- |
| 2026-09-09 | TB @ ATL | ATL | 53% | ✗ TB | 9.0 | -- | 9 | -- |
| 2026-09-09 | CLE @ BAL | CLE | 52% | ✗ BAL | 7.8 | -- | 14 | -- |
| 2026-09-09 | LAA @ BOS | BOS | 65% | ✗ LAA | 7.2 | -- | 10 | -- |
| 2026-09-09 | PIT @ CWS | PIT | 52% | ✓ PIT | 8.2 | -- | 6 | -- |
| 2026-09-09 | MIN @ DET | DET | 63% | ✓ DET | 8.0 | -- | 9 | -- |
| 2026-09-09 | AZ @ KC | KC | 54% | ✓ KC | 9.1 | -- | 7 | -- |
| 2026-09-09 | CIN @ LAD | LAD | 69% | ✓ LAD | 8.0 | -- | 15 | -- |
| 2026-09-09 | NYM @ MIA | MIA | 54% | ✗ NYM | 8.4 | -- | 29 | -- |
| 2026-09-09 | CHC @ MIL | MIL | 62% | ✓ MIL | 8.3 | -- | 14 | -- |
| 2026-09-09 | COL @ NYY | NYY | 64% | ✓ NYY | 11.2 | -- | 7 | -- |
| 2026-09-09 | HOU @ PHI | PHI | 51% | ✓ PHI | 8.5 | -- | 18 | -- |
| 2026-09-09 | WSH @ SD | SD | 54% | ✓ SD | 9.0 | -- | 11 | -- |
| 2026-09-09 | STL @ SF | SF | 54% | ✓ SF | 7.7 | -- | 13 | -- |
| 2026-09-09 | TEX @ SEA | SEA | 53% | ✓ SEA | 8.8 | -- | 5 | -- |
| 2026-09-08 | TOR @ ATH | TOR | 60% | ✓ TOR | 8.8 | -- | 6 | -- |
| 2026-09-08 | TB @ ATL | TB | 51% | ✓ TB | 9.9 | -- | 8 | -- |
| 2026-09-08 | CLE @ BAL | BAL | 53% | ✗ CLE | 8.7 | -- | 14 | -- |
| 2026-09-08 | LAA @ BOS | LAA | 55% | ✓ LAA | 7.4 | -- | 7 | -- |
| 2026-09-08 | PIT @ CWS | CWS | 55% | ✗ PIT | 8.1 | -- | 12 | -- |
| 2026-09-08 | MIN @ DET | DET | 59% | ✗ MIN | 9.2 | -- | 5 | -- |
| 2026-09-08 | AZ @ KC | AZ | 53% | ✓ AZ | 8.9 | -- | 8 | -- |
| 2026-09-08 | CIN @ LAD | LAD | 68% | ✓ LAD | 9.6 | -- | 5 | -- |
| 2026-09-08 | NYM @ MIA | MIA | 56% | ✗ NYM | 8.3 | -- | 12 | -- |
| 2026-09-08 | CHC @ MIL | MIL | 71% | ✓ MIL | 8.5 | -- | 7 | -- |
| 2026-09-08 | COL @ NYY | NYY | 68% | ✓ NYY | 9.2 | -- | 8 | -- |
| 2026-09-08 | HOU @ PHI | HOU | 61% | ✓ HOU | 8.3 | -- | 11 | -- |
| 2026-09-08 | WSH @ SD | SD | 59% | ✓ SD | 9.3 | -- | 9 | -- |
| 2026-09-08 | STL @ SF | SF | 52% | ✓ SF | 7.7 | -- | 3 | -- |
| 2026-09-08 | TEX @ SEA | TEX | 50% | ✓ TEX | 7.2 | -- | 15 | -- |
| 2026-09-07 | TOR @ ATH | TOR | 69% | ✗ ATH | 7.7 | -- | 11 | -- |
| 2026-09-07 | CLE @ BAL | BAL | 56% | ✓ BAL | 8.6 | -- | 10 | -- |
| 2026-09-07 | LAA @ BOS | BOS | 57% | ✓ BOS | 9.0 | -- | 7 | -- |
| 2026-09-07 | MIN @ DET | DET | 56% | ✓ DET | 8.2 | -- | 9 | -- |
| 2026-09-07 | AZ @ KC | AZ | 57% | ✓ AZ | 8.5 | -- | 9 | -- |
| 2026-09-07 | CIN @ LAD | CIN | 52% | ✗ LAD | 9.1 | -- | 9 | -- |
| 2026-09-07 | NYM @ MIA | MIA | 56% | ✗ NYM | 7.7 | -- | 13 | -- |
| 2026-09-07 | CHC @ MIL | MIL | 52% | ✓ MIL | 9.4 | -- | 7 | -- |
| 2026-09-07 | ATL @ PHI | PHI | 53% | ✓ PHI | 8.8 | -- | 1 | -- |
| 2026-09-07 | WSH @ SD | SD | 60% | ✓ SD | 9.0 | -- | 5 | -- |
| 2026-09-07 | STL @ SF | SF | 55% | ✓ SF | 8.0 | -- | 9 | -- |
| 2026-09-06 | BOS @ BAL | BOS | 55% | ✓ BOS | 8.4 | -- | 4 | -- |
| 2026-09-06 | MIN @ CWS | CWS | 54% | ✓ CWS | 8.4 | -- | 11 | -- |
| 2026-09-06 | MIL @ CIN | MIL | 55% | ✗ CIN | 10.2 | -- | 20 | -- |
| 2026-09-06 | DET @ CLE | CLE | 56% | ✓ CLE | 7.8 | -- | 5 | -- |
| 2026-09-06 | STL @ COL | STL | 57% | ✓ STL | 11.4 | -- | 18 | -- |
| 2026-09-06 | AZ @ HOU | HOU | 52% | ✗ AZ | 8.6 | -- | 5 | -- |
| 2026-09-06 | TOR @ KC | TOR | 59% | ✗ KC | 8.7 | -- | 7 | -- |
| 2026-09-06 | WSH @ LAD | LAD | 57% | ✓ LAD | 8.9 | -- | 12 | -- |
| 2026-09-06 | CHC @ MIA | CHC | 60% | ✗ MIA | 8.8 | -- | 13 | -- |
| 2026-09-06 | SF @ NYM | NYM | 53% | ✓ NYM | 8.5 | -- | 6 | -- |
| 2026-09-06 | ATL @ PHI | ATL | 58% | ✓ ATL | 10.4 | -- | 9 | -- |
| 2026-09-06 | LAA @ PIT | PIT | 60% | ✓ PIT | 6.8 | -- | 1 | -- |
| 2026-09-06 | NYY @ SD | SD | 55% | ✓ SD | 7.6 | -- | 7 | -- |
| 2026-09-06 | ATH @ SEA | SEA | 59% | ✓ SEA | 8.0 | -- | 2 | -- |
| 2026-09-06 | TB @ TEX | TB | 54% | ✗ TEX | 8.2 | -- | 14 | -- |
| 2026-09-05 | BOS @ BAL | BOS | 52% | ✓ BOS | 8.7 | -- | 5 | -- |
| 2026-09-05 | MIN @ CWS | CWS | 50% | ✗ MIN | 8.7 | -- | 10 | -- |
| 2026-09-05 | MIL @ CIN | MIL | 56% | ✗ CIN | 9.5 | -- | 8 | -- |
| 2026-09-05 | DET @ CLE | CLE | 61% | ✗ DET | 6.9 | -- | 6 | -- |
| 2026-09-05 | STL @ COL | COL | 50% | ✓ COL | 10.7 | -- | 17 | -- |
| 2026-09-05 | AZ @ HOU | AZ | 55% | ✓ AZ | 8.6 | -- | 7 | -- |
| 2026-09-05 | TOR @ KC | TOR | 53% | ✓ TOR | 9.9 | -- | 7 | -- |
| 2026-09-05 | WSH @ LAD | LAD | 61% | ✓ LAD | 7.6 | -- | 11 | -- |
| 2026-09-05 | CHC @ MIA | CHC | 52% | ✓ CHC | 9.0 | -- | 11 | -- |
| 2026-09-05 | SF @ NYM | NYM | 55% | ✗ SF | 8.4 | -- | 14 | -- |
| 2026-09-05 | ATL @ PHI | ATL | 51% | ✗ PHI | 8.2 | -- | 6 | -- |
| 2026-09-05 | LAA @ PIT | PIT | 66% | ✗ LAA | 7.3 | -- | 7 | -- |
| 2026-09-05 | NYY @ SD | SD | 55% | ✗ NYY | 7.2 | -- | 6 | -- |
| 2026-09-05 | ATH @ SEA | SEA | 58% | ✗ ATH | 8.6 | -- | 8 | -- |
| 2026-09-05 | TB @ TEX | TB | 53% | ✓ TB | 8.2 | -- | 9 | -- |
| 2026-09-04 | BOS @ BAL | BAL | 52% | ✗ BOS | 8.4 | -- | 1 | -- |
| 2026-09-04 | MIN @ CWS | MIN | 52% | ✗ CWS | 9.3 | -- | 5 | -- |
| 2026-09-04 | MIL @ CIN | MIL | 57% | ✓ MIL | 9.9 | -- | 17 | -- |
| 2026-09-04 | DET @ CLE | DET | 59% | ✗ CLE | 8.4 | -- | 13 | -- |
| 2026-09-04 | DET @ CLE | CLE | 55% | ✓ CLE | 7.9 | -- | 7 | -- |
| 2026-09-04 | STL @ COL | STL | 53% | ✓ STL | 10.7 | -- | 13 | -- |
| 2026-09-04 | AZ @ HOU | HOU | 59% | ✓ HOU | 10.1 | -- | 4 | -- |
| 2026-09-04 | TOR @ KC | KC | 56% | ✗ TOR | 9.9 | -- | 11 | -- |
| 2026-09-04 | WSH @ LAD | LAD | 64% | ✓ LAD | 8.2 | -- | 8 | -- |
| 2026-09-04 | CHC @ MIA | CHC | 53% | ✓ CHC | 9.3 | -- | 7 | -- |
| 2026-09-04 | SF @ NYM | NYM | 59% | ✓ NYM | 7.4 | -- | 16 | -- |
| 2026-09-04 | ATL @ PHI | ATL | 55% | ✓ ATL | 7.4 | -- | 7 | -- |
| 2026-09-04 | LAA @ PIT | PIT | 63% | ✓ PIT | 8.1 | -- | 1 | -- |
| 2026-09-04 | NYY @ SD | NYY | 54% | ✗ SD | 7.3 | -- | 5 | -- |
| 2026-09-04 | ATH @ SEA | SEA | 67% | ✗ ATH | 7.8 | -- | 13 | -- |
| 2026-09-04 | TB @ TEX | TEX | 52% | ✗ TB | 9.5 | -- | 13 | -- |
| 2026-09-03 | BOS @ BAL | BOS | 56% | ✓ BOS | 8.3 | -- | 11 | -- |
| 2026-09-03 | MIL @ CHC | MIL | 62% | ✗ CHC | 8.8 | -- | 3 | -- |
| 2026-09-03 | TOR @ CLE | CLE | 57% | ✗ TOR | 9.0 | -- | 9 | -- |
| 2026-09-03 | CWS @ HOU | HOU | 65% | ✓ HOU | 9.8 | -- | 8 | -- |
| 2026-09-03 | MIA @ KC | MIA | 52% | ✗ KC | 8.6 | -- | 10 | -- |
| 2026-09-03 | STL @ LAD | LAD | 68% | ✓ LAD | 7.8 | -- | 5 | -- |
| 2026-09-03 | SF @ PIT | PIT | 58% | ✓ PIT | 8.9 | -- | 7 | -- |
| 2026-09-03 | ATH @ SEA | SEA | 61% | ✗ ATH | 8.8 | -- | 11 | -- |
| 2026-09-03 | TB @ TEX | TB | 60% | ✗ TEX | 7.9 | -- | 6 | -- |
| 2026-09-02 | PHI @ AZ | AZ | 66% | ✓ AZ | 8.6 | -- | 1 | -- |
| 2026-09-02 | SEA @ BOS | SEA | 51% | ✓ SEA | 8.6 | -- | 11 | -- |
| 2026-09-02 | MIL @ CHC | MIL | 69% | ✓ MIL | 9.0 | -- | 14 | -- |
| 2026-09-02 | SD @ CIN | SD | 57% | ✗ CIN | 9.7 | -- | 10 | -- |
| 2026-09-02 | TOR @ CLE | TOR | 56% | ✓ TOR | 8.2 | -- | 11 | -- |
| 2026-09-02 | BAL @ COL | BAL | 64% | ✗ COL | 11.1 | -- | 11 | -- |
| 2026-09-02 | CWS @ HOU | HOU | 59% | ✓ HOU | 8.5 | -- | 2 | -- |
| 2026-09-02 | MIA @ KC | MIA | 56% | ✓ MIA | 7.9 | -- | 15 | -- |
| 2026-09-02 | NYY @ LAA | NYY | 57% | ✓ NYY | 6.8 | -- | 9 | -- |
| 2026-09-02 | STL @ LAD | LAD | 69% | ✗ STL | 7.8 | -- | 14 | -- |
| 2026-09-02 | DET @ MIN | DET | 51% | ✓ DET | 9.7 | -- | 17 | -- |
| 2026-09-02 | SF @ PIT | PIT | 57% | ✗ SF | 8.3 | -- | 9 | -- |
| 2026-09-02 | NYM @ TB | TB | 58% | ✗ NYM | 8.2 | -- | 14 | -- |
| 2026-09-02 | ATH @ TEX | TEX | 60% | ✗ ATH | 9.1 | -- | 11 | -- |
| 2026-09-02 | ATL @ WSH | WSH | 52% | ✗ ATL | 8.5 | -- | 9 | -- |
| 2026-09-01 | PHI @ AZ | AZ | 56% | ✗ PHI | 7.8 | -- | 8 | -- |
| 2026-09-01 | SEA @ BOS | BOS | 52% | ✗ SEA | 7.4 | -- | 15 | -- |
| 2026-09-01 | MIL @ CHC | CHC | 52% | ✗ MIL | 10.2 | -- | 13 | -- |
| 2026-09-01 | SD @ CIN | SD | 59% | ✗ CIN | 9.4 | -- | 7 | -- |
| 2026-09-01 | TOR @ CLE | CLE | 51% | ✓ CLE | 7.5 | -- | 7 | -- |
| 2026-09-01 | BAL @ COL | COL | 54% | ✓ COL | 9.8 | -- | 6 | -- |
| 2026-09-01 | CWS @ HOU | CWS | 54% | ✓ CWS | 9.5 | -- | 6 | -- |
| 2026-09-01 | MIA @ KC | MIA | 53% | ✓ MIA | 9.1 | -- | 9 | -- |
| 2026-09-01 | NYY @ LAA | NYY | 64% | ✓ NYY | 8.0 | -- | 10 | -- |
At-bat calls
Live tracker accuracy, plate appearance by plate appearance
Every PA prediction made by the live tracker, graded against what actually happened. 62771 at-bats and counting.
22.4% / 22.7%hit prob: predicted / actual
21.3% / 21.7%K prob: predicted / actual
62771at-bats graded
| When we said HIT... | n | We said | It happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0%-20% | 12298 | 18.4% | 20.8% |
| 20%-25% | 38997 | 22.4% | 22.8% |
| 25%-30% | 11108 | 26.5% | 24.5% |
| 30%-100% | 368 | 31.0% | 26.6% |
| When we said STRIKEOUT... | n | We said | It happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0%-15% | 7844 | 12.7% | 12.3% |
| 15%-22% | 28311 | 18.7% | 19.1% |
| 22%-30% | 21879 | 25.2% | 26.0% |
| 30%-100% | 4737 | 33.3% | 32.9% |