Mithrandir Metrics
The Mirror receipts Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
The Mirror / Record auto-graded

Every call, graded. No exceptions.

Every pregame simulation we publish gets graded against the final score automatically. Rows are written once and never edited — wins and losses alike. Tracking since 2026-06-10.

Cumulative

2026-06-10 → 2026-06-13

Today's sims →
18–14winner picks
56.2%pick accuracy
0.2403Brier (0.25 = coin flip)
16–7totals vs market line
32games graded
Game by game

The ledger

DateGamePickConfResultSim totalMktActualO/U call
2026-06-13 SD @ BAL BAL 53% ✗ SD 9.9 9.5 12 over
2026-06-13 LAD @ CWS LAD 56% ✓ LAD 9.5 8.0 8 over (push)
2026-06-13 AZ @ CIN CIN 56% ✓ CIN 10.5 9.5 3 over
2026-06-13 DET @ CLE CLE 51% ✓ CLE 9.7 7.5 4 over
2026-06-13 STL @ MIN MIN 54% ✗ STL 10.3 8.5 15 over
2026-06-13 ATL @ NYM ATL 55% ✓ ATL 8.4 12.5 4 under
2026-06-13 MIA @ PIT MIA 52% ✗ PIT 8.7 9.0 5 --
2026-06-13 NYY @ TOR NYY 58% ✓ NYY 9.1 7.5 4 over
2026-06-13 SEA @ WSH WSH 51% ✓ WSH 10.8 9.0 11 over
2026-06-12 MIA @ PIT PIT 57% ✗ MIA 8.3 8.5 11 --
2026-06-12 SEA @ WSH SEA 63% ✓ SEA 10.2 9.5 12 over
2026-06-11 CHC @ COL COL 56% ✗ CHC 11.7 11.0 12 over
2026-06-11 MIN @ DET DET 59% ✓ DET 9.6 9.0 11 over
2026-06-11 TEX @ KC KC 52% ✗ TEX 8.7 10.5 6 under
2026-06-11 AZ @ MIA MIA 62% ✓ MIA 10.1 8.5 2 over
2026-06-11 STL @ NYM NYM 52% ✓ NYM 10.7 9.0 9 over (push)
2026-06-11 LAD @ PIT LAD 63% ✓ LAD 8.1 9.5 14 under
2026-06-10 MIL @ ATH ATH 61% ✓ ATH 10.2 -- 7 --
2026-06-10 SEA @ BAL BAL 52% ✓ BAL 9.6 9.0 9 over (push)
2026-06-10 ATL @ CWS ATL 60% ✗ CWS 7.9 7.5 3 over
2026-06-10 NYY @ CLE CLE 55% ✗ NYY 8.8 7.5 12 over
2026-06-10 CHC @ COL CHC 63% ✗ COL 11.3 -- 5 --
2026-06-10 MIN @ DET DET 52% ✗ MIN 9.0 -- 10 --
2026-06-10 TEX @ KC TEX 54% ✓ TEX 8.8 9.5 10 under
2026-06-10 HOU @ LAA LAA 55% ✓ LAA 8.8 10.5 5 under
2026-06-10 AZ @ MIA AZ 51% ✗ MIA 8.5 8.5 8 --
2026-06-10 STL @ NYM NYM 52% ✗ STL 9.1 8.5 11 over
2026-06-10 LAD @ PIT LAD 70% ✗ PIT 8.7 8.0 17 over
2026-06-10 CIN @ SD SD 64% ✓ SD 9.8 8.0 9 over
2026-06-10 WSH @ SF SF 56% ✓ SF 9.4 8.5 21 over
2026-06-10 BOS @ TB TB 61% ✓ TB 8.5 7.5 12 over
2026-06-10 PHI @ TOR TOR 53% ✗ PHI 10.2 8.5 11 over
At-bat calls

Live tracker accuracy, plate appearance by plate appearance

Every PA prediction made by the live tracker, graded against what actually happened. 2431 at-bats and counting.

22.1% / 20.0%hit prob: predicted / actual
20.9% / 18.1%K prob: predicted / actual
2431at-bats graded
When we said HIT...nWe saidIt happened
0%-20%54018.4%18.9%
20%-25%152722.4%19.7%
25%-30%34926.3%22.3%
30%-100%1530.6%33.3%
When we said STRIKEOUT...nWe saidIt happened
0%-15%19613.2%13.3%
15%-22%126418.7%15.5%
22%-30%89424.7%21.6%
30%-100%7732.0%31.2%