Mithrandir Metrics
The Mirror receipts Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
The Mirror / Record auto-graded

Every call, graded. No exceptions.

Every pregame simulation we publish gets graded against the final score automatically. Rows are written once and never edited — wins and losses alike. Tracking since 2026-06-10.

Cumulative

2026-06-10 → 2026-09-09

Today's sims →
416–333winner picks
55.5%pick accuracy
0.246Brier (0.25 = coin flip)
83–71totals vs market line
749games graded
Game by game

The ledger

DateGamePickConfResultSim totalMktActualO/U call
2026-09-09 TOR @ ATH TOR 57% ✗ ATH 7.9 -- 2 --
2026-09-09 TB @ ATL ATL 53% ✗ TB 9.0 -- 9 --
2026-09-09 CLE @ BAL CLE 52% ✗ BAL 7.8 -- 14 --
2026-09-09 LAA @ BOS BOS 65% ✗ LAA 7.2 -- 10 --
2026-09-09 PIT @ CWS PIT 52% ✓ PIT 8.2 -- 6 --
2026-09-09 MIN @ DET DET 63% ✓ DET 8.0 -- 9 --
2026-09-09 AZ @ KC KC 54% ✓ KC 9.1 -- 7 --
2026-09-09 CIN @ LAD LAD 69% ✓ LAD 8.0 -- 15 --
2026-09-09 NYM @ MIA MIA 54% ✗ NYM 8.4 -- 29 --
2026-09-09 CHC @ MIL MIL 62% ✓ MIL 8.3 -- 14 --
2026-09-09 COL @ NYY NYY 64% ✓ NYY 11.2 -- 7 --
2026-09-09 HOU @ PHI PHI 51% ✓ PHI 8.5 -- 18 --
2026-09-09 WSH @ SD SD 54% ✓ SD 9.0 -- 11 --
2026-09-09 STL @ SF SF 54% ✓ SF 7.7 -- 13 --
2026-09-09 TEX @ SEA SEA 53% ✓ SEA 8.8 -- 5 --
2026-09-08 TOR @ ATH TOR 60% ✓ TOR 8.8 -- 6 --
2026-09-08 TB @ ATL TB 51% ✓ TB 9.9 -- 8 --
2026-09-08 CLE @ BAL BAL 53% ✗ CLE 8.7 -- 14 --
2026-09-08 LAA @ BOS LAA 55% ✓ LAA 7.4 -- 7 --
2026-09-08 PIT @ CWS CWS 55% ✗ PIT 8.1 -- 12 --
2026-09-08 MIN @ DET DET 59% ✗ MIN 9.2 -- 5 --
2026-09-08 AZ @ KC AZ 53% ✓ AZ 8.9 -- 8 --
2026-09-08 CIN @ LAD LAD 68% ✓ LAD 9.6 -- 5 --
2026-09-08 NYM @ MIA MIA 56% ✗ NYM 8.3 -- 12 --
2026-09-08 CHC @ MIL MIL 71% ✓ MIL 8.5 -- 7 --
2026-09-08 COL @ NYY NYY 68% ✓ NYY 9.2 -- 8 --
2026-09-08 HOU @ PHI HOU 61% ✓ HOU 8.3 -- 11 --
2026-09-08 WSH @ SD SD 59% ✓ SD 9.3 -- 9 --
2026-09-08 STL @ SF SF 52% ✓ SF 7.7 -- 3 --
2026-09-08 TEX @ SEA TEX 50% ✓ TEX 7.2 -- 15 --
2026-09-07 TOR @ ATH TOR 69% ✗ ATH 7.7 -- 11 --
2026-09-07 CLE @ BAL BAL 56% ✓ BAL 8.6 -- 10 --
2026-09-07 LAA @ BOS BOS 57% ✓ BOS 9.0 -- 7 --
2026-09-07 MIN @ DET DET 56% ✓ DET 8.2 -- 9 --
2026-09-07 AZ @ KC AZ 57% ✓ AZ 8.5 -- 9 --
2026-09-07 CIN @ LAD CIN 52% ✗ LAD 9.1 -- 9 --
2026-09-07 NYM @ MIA MIA 56% ✗ NYM 7.7 -- 13 --
2026-09-07 CHC @ MIL MIL 52% ✓ MIL 9.4 -- 7 --
2026-09-07 ATL @ PHI PHI 53% ✓ PHI 8.8 -- 1 --
2026-09-07 WSH @ SD SD 60% ✓ SD 9.0 -- 5 --
2026-09-07 STL @ SF SF 55% ✓ SF 8.0 -- 9 --
2026-09-06 BOS @ BAL BOS 55% ✓ BOS 8.4 -- 4 --
2026-09-06 MIN @ CWS CWS 54% ✓ CWS 8.4 -- 11 --
2026-09-06 MIL @ CIN MIL 55% ✗ CIN 10.2 -- 20 --
2026-09-06 DET @ CLE CLE 56% ✓ CLE 7.8 -- 5 --
2026-09-06 STL @ COL STL 57% ✓ STL 11.4 -- 18 --
2026-09-06 AZ @ HOU HOU 52% ✗ AZ 8.6 -- 5 --
2026-09-06 TOR @ KC TOR 59% ✗ KC 8.7 -- 7 --
2026-09-06 WSH @ LAD LAD 57% ✓ LAD 8.9 -- 12 --
2026-09-06 CHC @ MIA CHC 60% ✗ MIA 8.8 -- 13 --
2026-09-06 SF @ NYM NYM 53% ✓ NYM 8.5 -- 6 --
2026-09-06 ATL @ PHI ATL 58% ✓ ATL 10.4 -- 9 --
2026-09-06 LAA @ PIT PIT 60% ✓ PIT 6.8 -- 1 --
2026-09-06 NYY @ SD SD 55% ✓ SD 7.6 -- 7 --
2026-09-06 ATH @ SEA SEA 59% ✓ SEA 8.0 -- 2 --
2026-09-06 TB @ TEX TB 54% ✗ TEX 8.2 -- 14 --
2026-09-05 BOS @ BAL BOS 52% ✓ BOS 8.7 -- 5 --
2026-09-05 MIN @ CWS CWS 50% ✗ MIN 8.7 -- 10 --
2026-09-05 MIL @ CIN MIL 56% ✗ CIN 9.5 -- 8 --
2026-09-05 DET @ CLE CLE 61% ✗ DET 6.9 -- 6 --
2026-09-05 STL @ COL COL 50% ✓ COL 10.7 -- 17 --
2026-09-05 AZ @ HOU AZ 55% ✓ AZ 8.6 -- 7 --
2026-09-05 TOR @ KC TOR 53% ✓ TOR 9.9 -- 7 --
2026-09-05 WSH @ LAD LAD 61% ✓ LAD 7.6 -- 11 --
2026-09-05 CHC @ MIA CHC 52% ✓ CHC 9.0 -- 11 --
2026-09-05 SF @ NYM NYM 55% ✗ SF 8.4 -- 14 --
2026-09-05 ATL @ PHI ATL 51% ✗ PHI 8.2 -- 6 --
2026-09-05 LAA @ PIT PIT 66% ✗ LAA 7.3 -- 7 --
2026-09-05 NYY @ SD SD 55% ✗ NYY 7.2 -- 6 --
2026-09-05 ATH @ SEA SEA 58% ✗ ATH 8.6 -- 8 --
2026-09-05 TB @ TEX TB 53% ✓ TB 8.2 -- 9 --
2026-09-04 BOS @ BAL BAL 52% ✗ BOS 8.4 -- 1 --
2026-09-04 MIN @ CWS MIN 52% ✗ CWS 9.3 -- 5 --
2026-09-04 MIL @ CIN MIL 57% ✓ MIL 9.9 -- 17 --
2026-09-04 DET @ CLE DET 59% ✗ CLE 8.4 -- 13 --
2026-09-04 DET @ CLE CLE 55% ✓ CLE 7.9 -- 7 --
2026-09-04 STL @ COL STL 53% ✓ STL 10.7 -- 13 --
2026-09-04 AZ @ HOU HOU 59% ✓ HOU 10.1 -- 4 --
2026-09-04 TOR @ KC KC 56% ✗ TOR 9.9 -- 11 --
2026-09-04 WSH @ LAD LAD 64% ✓ LAD 8.2 -- 8 --
2026-09-04 CHC @ MIA CHC 53% ✓ CHC 9.3 -- 7 --
2026-09-04 SF @ NYM NYM 59% ✓ NYM 7.4 -- 16 --
2026-09-04 ATL @ PHI ATL 55% ✓ ATL 7.4 -- 7 --
2026-09-04 LAA @ PIT PIT 63% ✓ PIT 8.1 -- 1 --
2026-09-04 NYY @ SD NYY 54% ✗ SD 7.3 -- 5 --
2026-09-04 ATH @ SEA SEA 67% ✗ ATH 7.8 -- 13 --
2026-09-04 TB @ TEX TEX 52% ✗ TB 9.5 -- 13 --
2026-09-03 BOS @ BAL BOS 56% ✓ BOS 8.3 -- 11 --
2026-09-03 MIL @ CHC MIL 62% ✗ CHC 8.8 -- 3 --
2026-09-03 TOR @ CLE CLE 57% ✗ TOR 9.0 -- 9 --
2026-09-03 CWS @ HOU HOU 65% ✓ HOU 9.8 -- 8 --
2026-09-03 MIA @ KC MIA 52% ✗ KC 8.6 -- 10 --
2026-09-03 STL @ LAD LAD 68% ✓ LAD 7.8 -- 5 --
2026-09-03 SF @ PIT PIT 58% ✓ PIT 8.9 -- 7 --
2026-09-03 ATH @ SEA SEA 61% ✗ ATH 8.8 -- 11 --
2026-09-03 TB @ TEX TB 60% ✗ TEX 7.9 -- 6 --
2026-09-02 PHI @ AZ AZ 66% ✓ AZ 8.6 -- 1 --
2026-09-02 SEA @ BOS SEA 51% ✓ SEA 8.6 -- 11 --
2026-09-02 MIL @ CHC MIL 69% ✓ MIL 9.0 -- 14 --
2026-09-02 SD @ CIN SD 57% ✗ CIN 9.7 -- 10 --
2026-09-02 TOR @ CLE TOR 56% ✓ TOR 8.2 -- 11 --
2026-09-02 BAL @ COL BAL 64% ✗ COL 11.1 -- 11 --
2026-09-02 CWS @ HOU HOU 59% ✓ HOU 8.5 -- 2 --
2026-09-02 MIA @ KC MIA 56% ✓ MIA 7.9 -- 15 --
2026-09-02 NYY @ LAA NYY 57% ✓ NYY 6.8 -- 9 --
2026-09-02 STL @ LAD LAD 69% ✗ STL 7.8 -- 14 --
2026-09-02 DET @ MIN DET 51% ✓ DET 9.7 -- 17 --
2026-09-02 SF @ PIT PIT 57% ✗ SF 8.3 -- 9 --
2026-09-02 NYM @ TB TB 58% ✗ NYM 8.2 -- 14 --
2026-09-02 ATH @ TEX TEX 60% ✗ ATH 9.1 -- 11 --
2026-09-02 ATL @ WSH WSH 52% ✗ ATL 8.5 -- 9 --
2026-09-01 PHI @ AZ AZ 56% ✗ PHI 7.8 -- 8 --
2026-09-01 SEA @ BOS BOS 52% ✗ SEA 7.4 -- 15 --
2026-09-01 MIL @ CHC CHC 52% ✗ MIL 10.2 -- 13 --
2026-09-01 SD @ CIN SD 59% ✗ CIN 9.4 -- 7 --
2026-09-01 TOR @ CLE CLE 51% ✓ CLE 7.5 -- 7 --
2026-09-01 BAL @ COL COL 54% ✓ COL 9.8 -- 6 --
2026-09-01 CWS @ HOU CWS 54% ✓ CWS 9.5 -- 6 --
2026-09-01 MIA @ KC MIA 53% ✓ MIA 9.1 -- 9 --
2026-09-01 NYY @ LAA NYY 64% ✓ NYY 8.0 -- 10 --
At-bat calls

Live tracker accuracy, plate appearance by plate appearance

Every PA prediction made by the live tracker, graded against what actually happened. 62771 at-bats and counting.

22.4% / 22.7%hit prob: predicted / actual
21.3% / 21.7%K prob: predicted / actual
62771at-bats graded
When we said HIT...nWe saidIt happened
0%-20%1229818.4%20.8%
20%-25%3899722.4%22.8%
25%-30%1110826.5%24.5%
30%-100%36831.0%26.6%
When we said STRIKEOUT...nWe saidIt happened
0%-15%784412.7%12.3%
15%-22%2831118.7%19.1%
22%-30%2187925.2%26.0%
30%-100%473733.3%32.9%