The Mirror / Record auto-graded
Every call, graded. No exceptions.
Every pregame simulation we publish gets graded against the final score automatically. Rows are written once and never edited — wins and losses alike. Tracking since 2026-09-18.
Cumulative
2026-09-18 → 2026-10-24
103–69winner picks
59.9%pick accuracy
0.2334Brier (0.25 = coin flip)
172games graded
Game by game
The ledger
| Date | Game | Pick | Conf | Result | Sim total | Mkt | Actual | O/U call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | TB @ MIL | MIL | 58% | ✓ MIL | 7.0 | -- | 9 | -- |
| 2026-10-23 | TB @ MIL | MIL | 73% | ✓ MIL | 8.0 | -- | 5 | -- |
| 2026-10-19 | CLE @ TB | TB | 53% | ✓ TB | 9.2 | -- | 10 | -- |
| 2026-10-18 | TB @ CLE | TB | 53% | ✓ TB | 6.5 | -- | 4 | -- |
| 2026-10-17 | TB @ CLE | CLE | 51% | ✗ TB | 7.4 | -- | 10 | -- |
| 2026-10-15 | TB @ CLE | CLE | 51% | ✓ CLE | 7.8 | -- | 5 | -- |
| 2026-10-15 | MIL @ LAD | LAD | 64% | ✗ MIL | 9.1 | -- | 10 | -- |
| 2026-10-14 | MIL @ LAD | LAD | 55% | ✗ MIL | 8.6 | -- | 8 | -- |
| 2026-10-13 | CLE @ TB | CLE | 50% | ✗ TB | 8.9 | -- | 4 | -- |
| 2026-10-12 | CLE @ TB | TB | 64% | ✗ CLE | 8.3 | -- | 10 | -- |
| 2026-10-12 | LAD @ MIL | LAD | 50% | ✗ MIL | 7.8 | -- | 11 | -- |
| 2026-10-11 | LAD @ MIL | MIL | 59% | ✓ MIL | 6.8 | -- | 3 | -- |
| 2026-10-10 | CWS @ CLE | CLE | 56% | ✓ CLE | 7.6 | -- | 2 | -- |
| 2026-10-08 | CLE @ CWS | CLE | 52% | ✓ CLE | 7.7 | -- | 14 | -- |
| 2026-10-07 | TB @ NYY | NYY | 62% | ✗ TB | 7.9 | -- | 7 | -- |
| 2026-10-07 | CLE @ CWS | CWS | 53% | ✗ CLE | 8.1 | -- | 12 | -- |
| 2026-10-07 | MIL @ SD | MIL | 54% | ✓ MIL | 9.1 | -- | 4 | -- |
| 2026-10-07 | LAD @ ATL | LAD | 62% | ✓ LAD | 8.1 | -- | 5 | -- |
| 2026-10-06 | MIL @ SD | SD | 56% | ✓ SD | 8.8 | -- | 7 | -- |
| 2026-10-06 | LAD @ ATL | LAD | 52% | ✓ LAD | 6.5 | -- | 4 | -- |
| 2026-10-05 | NYY @ TB | NYY | 58% | ✗ TB | 8.2 | -- | 7 | -- |
| 2026-10-05 | CWS @ CLE | CLE | 61% | ✗ CWS | 7.6 | -- | 7 | -- |
| 2026-10-04 | SD @ MIL | MIL | 59% | ✓ MIL | 6.9 | -- | 7 | -- |
| 2026-10-04 | ATL @ LAD | LAD | 59% | ✗ ATL | 8.2 | -- | 5 | -- |
| 2026-10-03 | NYY @ TB | TB | 60% | ✓ TB | 8.2 | -- | 1 | -- |
| 2026-10-03 | SD @ MIL | MIL | 65% | ✓ MIL | 7.1 | -- | 5 | -- |
| 2026-10-03 | CWS @ CLE | CLE | 58% | ✗ CWS | 7.0 | -- | 3 | -- |
| 2026-10-03 | ATL @ LAD | LAD | 62% | ✓ LAD | 8.5 | -- | 8 | -- |
| 2026-10-01 | PHI @ ATL | ATL | 70% | ✓ ATL | 9.6 | -- | 8 | -- |
| 2026-09-30 | BOS @ NYY | NYY | 61% | ✓ NYY | 7.3 | -- | 11 | -- |
| 2026-09-30 | CWS @ HOU | HOU | 59% | ✗ CWS | 9.3 | -- | 10 | -- |
| 2026-09-30 | CHC @ SD | SD | 62% | ✓ SD | 8.8 | -- | 5 | -- |
| 2026-09-30 | PHI @ ATL | ATL | 52% | ✗ PHI | 9.4 | -- | 7 | -- |
| 2026-09-29 | BOS @ NYY | NYY | 60% | ✓ NYY | 7.1 | -- | 9 | -- |
| 2026-09-29 | CWS @ HOU | HOU | 57% | ✗ CWS | 9.0 | -- | 9 | -- |
| 2026-09-29 | PHI @ ATL | ATL | 60% | ✓ ATL | 7.9 | -- | 8 | -- |
| 2026-09-29 | CHC @ SD | SD | 57% | ✓ SD | 8.8 | -- | 8 | -- |
| 2026-09-27 | HOU @ ATH | HOU | 62% | ✓ HOU | 9.4 | -- | 9 | -- |
| 2026-09-27 | CHC @ BOS | CHC | 53% | ✓ CHC | 8.6 | -- | 8 | -- |
| 2026-09-27 | COL @ CWS | CWS | 57% | ✓ CWS | 9.6 | -- | 6 | -- |
| 2026-09-27 | PIT @ DET | DET | 55% | ✗ PIT | 7.8 | -- | 6 | -- |
| 2026-09-27 | CLE @ KC | CLE | 57% | ✗ KC | 7.6 | -- | 5 | -- |
| 2026-09-27 | ATL @ MIA | MIA | 50% | ✓ MIA | 7.7 | -- | 8 | -- |
| 2026-09-27 | STL @ MIL | MIL | 75% | ✓ MIL | 6.5 | -- | 10 | -- |
| 2026-09-27 | TEX @ MIN | MIN | 52% | ✓ MIN | 8.4 | -- | 10 | -- |
| 2026-09-27 | TB @ PHI | PHI | 54% | ✓ PHI | 8.2 | -- | 10 | -- |
| 2026-09-27 | AZ @ SD | AZ | 59% | ✗ SD | 7.8 | -- | 13 | -- |
| 2026-09-27 | LAD @ SF | LAD | 65% | ✓ LAD | 7.4 | -- | 6 | -- |
| 2026-09-27 | LAA @ SEA | SEA | 64% | ✓ SEA | 7.9 | -- | 10 | -- |
| 2026-09-27 | CIN @ TOR | TOR | 52% | ✓ TOR | 8.3 | -- | 6 | -- |
| 2026-09-27 | NYM @ WSH | WSH | 53% | ✓ WSH | 8.4 | -- | 10 | -- |
| 2026-09-26 | HOU @ ATH | HOU | 63% | ✓ HOU | 8.8 | -- | 15 | -- |
| 2026-09-26 | COL @ CWS | CWS | 63% | ✗ COL | 9.3 | -- | 15 | -- |
| 2026-09-26 | PIT @ DET | DET | 51% | ✓ DET | 9.7 | -- | 7 | -- |
| 2026-09-26 | CLE @ KC | KC | 59% | ✗ CLE | 8.5 | -- | 16 | -- |
| 2026-09-26 | ATL @ MIA | MIA | 52% | ✗ ATL | 8.0 | -- | 11 | -- |
| 2026-09-26 | STL @ MIL | MIL | 62% | ✓ MIL | 8.8 | -- | 5 | -- |
| 2026-09-26 | TEX @ MIN | MIN | 54% | ✗ TEX | 7.8 | -- | 8 | -- |
| 2026-09-26 | TB @ PHI | TB | 60% | ✓ TB | 9.1 | -- | 13 | -- |
| 2026-09-26 | AZ @ SD | AZ | 57% | ✗ SD | 8.2 | -- | 17 | -- |
| 2026-09-26 | LAD @ SF | LAD | 64% | ✓ LAD | 6.7 | -- | 7 | -- |
| 2026-09-26 | LAA @ SEA | SEA | 62% | ✓ SEA | 8.1 | -- | 12 | -- |
| 2026-09-26 | CIN @ TOR | TOR | 62% | ✗ CIN | 8.3 | -- | 6 | -- |
| 2026-09-26 | NYM @ WSH | WSH | 51% | ✗ NYM | 7.9 | -- | 8 | -- |
| 2026-09-25 | HOU @ ATH | HOU | 64% | ✗ ATH | 9.1 | -- | 11 | -- |
| 2026-09-25 | CHC @ BOS | CHC | 55% | ✗ BOS | 8.2 | -- | 2 | -- |
| 2026-09-25 | CHC @ BOS | CHC | 58% | ✗ BOS | 7.6 | -- | 7 | -- |
| 2026-09-25 | COL @ CWS | CWS | 67% | ✓ CWS | 9.0 | -- | 7 | -- |
| 2026-09-25 | PIT @ DET | DET | 52% | ✓ DET | 8.5 | -- | 15 | -- |
| 2026-09-25 | CLE @ KC | CLE | 54% | ✓ CLE | 7.8 | -- | 21 | -- |
| 2026-09-25 | ATL @ MIA | ATL | 54% | ✗ MIA | 7.7 | -- | 3 | -- |
| 2026-09-25 | STL @ MIL | MIL | 62% | ✓ MIL | 8.1 | -- | 12 | -- |
| 2026-09-25 | TEX @ MIN | TEX | 52% | ✗ MIN | 7.6 | -- | 12 | -- |
| 2026-09-25 | BAL @ NYY | NYY | 53% | ✗ BAL | 7.6 | -- | 12 | -- |
| 2026-09-25 | BAL @ NYY | NYY | 67% | ✓ NYY | 7.5 | -- | 9 | -- |
| 2026-09-25 | TB @ PHI | PHI | 51% | ✗ TB | 8.4 | -- | 2 | -- |
| 2026-09-25 | AZ @ SD | AZ | 51% | ✓ AZ | 8.2 | -- | 15 | -- |
| 2026-09-25 | LAD @ SF | LAD | 69% | ✓ LAD | 7.4 | -- | 2 | -- |
| 2026-09-25 | LAA @ SEA | LAA | 50% | ✓ LAA | 7.1 | -- | 12 | -- |
| 2026-09-25 | CIN @ TOR | TOR | 64% | ✓ TOR | 7.7 | -- | 11 | -- |
| 2026-09-25 | NYM @ WSH | WSH | 56% | ✓ WSH | 7.4 | -- | 13 | -- |
| 2026-09-24 | HOU @ ATH | HOU | 66% | ✓ HOU | 9.7 | -- | 12 | -- |
| 2026-09-24 | CIN @ ATL | ATL | 71% | ✗ CIN | 9.3 | -- | 13 | -- |
| 2026-09-24 | CLE @ BOS | BOS | 55% | ✗ CLE | 7.1 | -- | 1 | -- |
| 2026-09-24 | MIA @ CHC | CHC | 60% | ✓ CHC | 8.3 | -- | 3 | -- |
| 2026-09-24 | AZ @ COL | AZ | 65% | ✓ AZ | 9.9 | -- | 20 | -- |
| 2026-09-24 | CWS @ KC | CWS | 54% | ✓ CWS | 8.9 | -- | 10 | -- |
| 2026-09-24 | SD @ LAD | LAD | 61% | ✗ SD | 8.0 | -- | 6 | -- |
| 2026-09-24 | TB @ NYY | NYY | 56% | ✓ NYY | 7.2 | -- | 10 | -- |
| 2026-09-24 | MIL @ PHI | MIL | 54% | ✓ MIL | 9.1 | -- | 6 | -- |
| 2026-09-24 | STL @ PIT | PIT | 61% | ✓ PIT | 7.5 | -- | 3 | -- |
| 2026-09-24 | LAA @ SEA | SEA | 65% | ✗ LAA | 8.2 | -- | 10 | -- |
| 2026-09-24 | NYM @ TEX | NYM | 50% | ✗ TEX | 9.1 | -- | 4 | -- |
| 2026-09-23 | LAA @ ATH | LAA | 56% | ✗ ATH | 8.1 | -- | 10 | -- |
| 2026-09-23 | CIN @ ATL | ATL | 71% | ✓ ATL | 7.1 | -- | 5 | -- |
| 2026-09-23 | TOR @ BAL | TOR | 53% | ✗ BAL | 7.8 | -- | 6 | -- |
| 2026-09-23 | TOR @ BAL | TOR | 55% | ✗ BAL | 7.7 | -- | 6 | -- |
| 2026-09-23 | CLE @ BOS | BOS | 55% | ✓ BOS | 6.9 | -- | 1 | -- |
| 2026-09-23 | MIA @ CHC | CHC | 58% | ✗ MIA | 8.8 | -- | 5 | -- |
| 2026-09-23 | AZ @ COL | AZ | 56% | ✓ AZ | 11.0 | -- | 8 | -- |
| 2026-09-23 | WSH @ DET | DET | 57% | ✗ WSH | 8.3 | -- | 6 | -- |
| 2026-09-23 | CWS @ KC | CWS | 57% | ✗ KC | 8.9 | -- | 9 | -- |
| 2026-09-23 | SD @ LAD | LAD | 61% | ✗ SD | 8.1 | -- | 6 | -- |
| 2026-09-23 | TB @ NYY | NYY | 56% | ✓ NYY | 8.6 | -- | 11 | -- |
| 2026-09-23 | MIL @ PHI | MIL | 69% | ✓ MIL | 8.2 | -- | 5 | -- |
| 2026-09-23 | STL @ PIT | PIT | 66% | ✗ STL | 7.5 | -- | 6 | -- |
| 2026-09-23 | MIN @ SF | MIN | 57% | ✓ MIN | 8.3 | -- | 6 | -- |
| 2026-09-23 | HOU @ SEA | HOU | 58% | ✗ SEA | 9.1 | -- | 11 | -- |
| 2026-09-23 | NYM @ TEX | NYM | 55% | ✓ NYM | 9.5 | -- | 9 | -- |
| 2026-09-22 | LAA @ ATH | ATH | 56% | ✓ ATH | 8.4 | -- | 16 | -- |
| 2026-09-22 | CIN @ ATL | ATL | 58% | ✗ CIN | 9.0 | -- | 4 | -- |
| 2026-09-22 | CLE @ BOS | CLE | 56% | ✓ CLE | 6.4 | -- | 5 | -- |
| 2026-09-22 | MIA @ CHC | CHC | 58% | ✗ MIA | 8.4 | -- | 10 | -- |
| 2026-09-22 | AZ @ COL | AZ | 63% | ✓ AZ | 10.0 | -- | 9 | -- |
| 2026-09-22 | WSH @ DET | DET | 59% | ✗ WSH | 8.3 | -- | 4 | -- |
| 2026-09-22 | CWS @ KC | KC | 52% | ✗ CWS | 8.3 | -- | 25 | -- |
| 2026-09-22 | SD @ LAD | LAD | 55% | ✓ LAD | 8.3 | -- | 7 | -- |
| 2026-09-22 | TB @ NYY | NYY | 56% | ✓ NYY | 8.3 | -- | 2 | -- |
| 2026-09-22 | TB @ NYY | NYY | 57% | ✗ TB | 6.7 | -- | 7 | -- |
| 2026-09-22 | MIL @ PHI | PHI | 50% | ✓ PHI | 8.2 | -- | 10 | -- |
At-bat calls
Live tracker accuracy, plate appearance by plate appearance
Every PA prediction made by the live tracker, graded against what actually happened. 80250 at-bats and counting.
22.5% / 22.6%hit prob: predicted / actual
22.0% / 21.9%K prob: predicted / actual
80250at-bats graded
| When we said HIT... | n | We said | It happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0%-20% | 15431 | 18.4% | 20.3% |
| 20%-25% | 49516 | 22.5% | 22.6% |
| 25%-30% | 14787 | 26.5% | 24.7% |
| 30%-100% | 516 | 31.0% | 27.7% |
| When we said STRIKEOUT... | n | We said | It happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0%-15% | 8754 | 12.8% | 11.8% |
| 15%-22% | 33397 | 18.7% | 18.8% |
| 22%-30% | 29974 | 25.3% | 25.4% |
| 30%-100% | 8125 | 33.5% | 32.8% |