The Mirror / Record auto-graded
Every call, graded. No exceptions.
Every pregame simulation we publish gets graded against the final score automatically. Rows are written once and never edited — wins and losses alike. Tracking since 2026-06-10.
Cumulative
2026-06-10 → 2026-06-13
18–14winner picks
56.2%pick accuracy
0.2403Brier (0.25 = coin flip)
16–7totals vs market line
32games graded
Game by game
The ledger
| Date | Game | Pick | Conf | Result | Sim total | Mkt | Actual | O/U call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | SD @ BAL | BAL | 53% | ✗ SD | 9.9 | 9.5 | 12 | over |
| 2026-06-13 | LAD @ CWS | LAD | 56% | ✓ LAD | 9.5 | 8.0 | 8 | over (push) |
| 2026-06-13 | AZ @ CIN | CIN | 56% | ✓ CIN | 10.5 | 9.5 | 3 | over |
| 2026-06-13 | DET @ CLE | CLE | 51% | ✓ CLE | 9.7 | 7.5 | 4 | over |
| 2026-06-13 | STL @ MIN | MIN | 54% | ✗ STL | 10.3 | 8.5 | 15 | over |
| 2026-06-13 | ATL @ NYM | ATL | 55% | ✓ ATL | 8.4 | 12.5 | 4 | under |
| 2026-06-13 | MIA @ PIT | MIA | 52% | ✗ PIT | 8.7 | 9.0 | 5 | -- |
| 2026-06-13 | NYY @ TOR | NYY | 58% | ✓ NYY | 9.1 | 7.5 | 4 | over |
| 2026-06-13 | SEA @ WSH | WSH | 51% | ✓ WSH | 10.8 | 9.0 | 11 | over |
| 2026-06-12 | MIA @ PIT | PIT | 57% | ✗ MIA | 8.3 | 8.5 | 11 | -- |
| 2026-06-12 | SEA @ WSH | SEA | 63% | ✓ SEA | 10.2 | 9.5 | 12 | over |
| 2026-06-11 | CHC @ COL | COL | 56% | ✗ CHC | 11.7 | 11.0 | 12 | over |
| 2026-06-11 | MIN @ DET | DET | 59% | ✓ DET | 9.6 | 9.0 | 11 | over |
| 2026-06-11 | TEX @ KC | KC | 52% | ✗ TEX | 8.7 | 10.5 | 6 | under |
| 2026-06-11 | AZ @ MIA | MIA | 62% | ✓ MIA | 10.1 | 8.5 | 2 | over |
| 2026-06-11 | STL @ NYM | NYM | 52% | ✓ NYM | 10.7 | 9.0 | 9 | over (push) |
| 2026-06-11 | LAD @ PIT | LAD | 63% | ✓ LAD | 8.1 | 9.5 | 14 | under |
| 2026-06-10 | MIL @ ATH | ATH | 61% | ✓ ATH | 10.2 | -- | 7 | -- |
| 2026-06-10 | SEA @ BAL | BAL | 52% | ✓ BAL | 9.6 | 9.0 | 9 | over (push) |
| 2026-06-10 | ATL @ CWS | ATL | 60% | ✗ CWS | 7.9 | 7.5 | 3 | over |
| 2026-06-10 | NYY @ CLE | CLE | 55% | ✗ NYY | 8.8 | 7.5 | 12 | over |
| 2026-06-10 | CHC @ COL | CHC | 63% | ✗ COL | 11.3 | -- | 5 | -- |
| 2026-06-10 | MIN @ DET | DET | 52% | ✗ MIN | 9.0 | -- | 10 | -- |
| 2026-06-10 | TEX @ KC | TEX | 54% | ✓ TEX | 8.8 | 9.5 | 10 | under |
| 2026-06-10 | HOU @ LAA | LAA | 55% | ✓ LAA | 8.8 | 10.5 | 5 | under |
| 2026-06-10 | AZ @ MIA | AZ | 51% | ✗ MIA | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8 | -- |
| 2026-06-10 | STL @ NYM | NYM | 52% | ✗ STL | 9.1 | 8.5 | 11 | over |
| 2026-06-10 | LAD @ PIT | LAD | 70% | ✗ PIT | 8.7 | 8.0 | 17 | over |
| 2026-06-10 | CIN @ SD | SD | 64% | ✓ SD | 9.8 | 8.0 | 9 | over |
| 2026-06-10 | WSH @ SF | SF | 56% | ✓ SF | 9.4 | 8.5 | 21 | over |
| 2026-06-10 | BOS @ TB | TB | 61% | ✓ TB | 8.5 | 7.5 | 12 | over |
| 2026-06-10 | PHI @ TOR | TOR | 53% | ✗ PHI | 10.2 | 8.5 | 11 | over |
At-bat calls
Live tracker accuracy, plate appearance by plate appearance
Every PA prediction made by the live tracker, graded against what actually happened. 2431 at-bats and counting.
22.1% / 20.0%hit prob: predicted / actual
20.9% / 18.1%K prob: predicted / actual
2431at-bats graded
| When we said HIT... | n | We said | It happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0%-20% | 540 | 18.4% | 18.9% |
| 20%-25% | 1527 | 22.4% | 19.7% |
| 25%-30% | 349 | 26.3% | 22.3% |
| 30%-100% | 15 | 30.6% | 33.3% |
| When we said STRIKEOUT... | n | We said | It happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0%-15% | 196 | 13.2% | 13.3% |
| 15%-22% | 1264 | 18.7% | 15.5% |
| 22%-30% | 894 | 24.7% | 21.6% |
| 30%-100% | 77 | 32.0% | 31.2% |