What changed for Randal Grichuk.
From 2025 to 2026, Randal Grichuk's Sweet-Spot% moved from 33.3% to 46.3%. Here's everything else the data sees that changed.
Something has changed for Randal Grichuk, now 35, between 2025 and 2026. We went through what the data can actually measure, including contact, plate approach, swing shape, and the results they produce, to separate the signal from the noise. The clearest gain: Sweet-Spot% moved from 33.3% to 46.3%, which now sits in the 97th percentile leaguewide. It hasn't been all one direction. Whiff% has slipped from 18.3% to 22.7%, but the trade has largely worked so far.
The Results
On the bottom-line production (what it all adds up to), the arrows point the right way. Grichuk has improved on xSLG (0.588→0.737), OPS (0.683→0.798), and wOBA (0.320→0.405), with nothing here moving meaningfully against him.
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | Change | League now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| xwOBA | 0.326 | 0.388 | ▲ +0.062 | 90th |
| wOBA | 0.320 | 0.405 | ▲ +0.085 | 82th |
| xSLG | 0.588 | 0.737 | ▲ +0.149 | 91th |
| OPS | 0.683 | 0.798 | ▲ +0.115 | 61th |
The biggest move is xSLG, up from 0.588 to 0.737 (+0.149). It's been a clean step forward here.
Contact Quality
On the quality of contact (how hard and how flush he's hitting the ball), it's a genuine mix. Grichuk has gained ground on Sweet-Spot% (33.3%→46.3%) and Barrel% (8.1%→8.8%), while slipping on Exit Velo (92.4 mph→90.1 mph) and Hard-Hit% (49.1%→43.9%). The net picture is a real shift in profile, not a simple up-or-down.
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | Change | League now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 92.4 mph | 90.1 mph | ▼ -2.2 | 61th |
| Barrel% | 8.1% | 8.8% | ▲ +0.7 pts | 79th |
| Hard-Hit% | 49.1% | 43.9% | ▼ -5.2 pts | 52th |
| Sweet-Spot% | 33.3% | 46.3% | ▲ +13.0 pts | 97th |
The biggest move is Exit Velo, down from 92.4 mph to 90.1 mph (-2.2).
Plate Approach
On his approach at the plate (what he swings at and how often he misses), it's a genuine mix. Grichuk has gained ground on K% (21.3%→21.1%), while slipping on Whiff% (18.3%→22.7%), BB% (5.8%→5.3%), and Chase% (31.5%→31.9%). The net picture is a real shift in profile, not a simple up-or-down.
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | Change | League now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase% | 31.5% | 31.9% | ▼ +0.4 pts | 34th |
| Whiff% | 18.3% | 22.7% | ▼ +4.5 pts | 42th |
| K% | 21.3% | 21.1% | ▲ -0.2 pts | 45th |
| BB% | 5.8% | 5.3% | ▼ -0.5 pts | 10th |
The biggest move is Whiff%, up from 18.3% to 22.7% (+4.5 pts).
Swing & Batted-Ball Shape
On his swing and batted-ball shape (the mechanical fingerprint behind the changes above), it's a genuine mix. Grichuk has gained ground on Swing Length (7.6 ft→7.5 ft), Pull% (46.4%→48.8%), and Oppo% (26.6%→28.0%), while slipping on Launch Angle (17.4°→14.4°) and Bat Speed (72.3 mph→71.9 mph). The net picture is a real shift in profile, not a simple up-or-down.
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | Change | League now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launch Angle | 17.4° | 14.4° | ▼ -3.0 | 56th |
| Pull% | 46.4% | 48.8% | ▲ +2.4 pts | 64th |
| Oppo% | 26.6% | 28.0% | ▲ +1.5 pts | 58th |
| Ground-Ball% | 39.2% | 39.0% | ▲ -0.2 pts | 66th |
| Bat Speed (2024+) | 72.3 mph | 71.9 mph | ▼ -0.4 | 66th |
| Swing Length (2024+) | 7.6 ft | 7.5 ft | ▲ -0.1 | 31th |
The biggest move is Launch Angle, down from 17.4° to 14.4° (-3.0).
The takeaway
Bottom line: between 2025 and 2026, the broad picture is a step forward, and the results are following the process. More of Grichuk's underlying markers are pointing up than down. It's worth re-checking as the sample grows, but the direction is already readable in the numbers.
How to read this
- Sample sizes are modest (2025 310 PA, 2026 114 PA), so read the magnitude of these changes with some caution.
- This compares what the data can measure (contact, approach, swing and batted-ball shape). Stance, hand position, and leg-kick changes are not in the public data and are not claimed here.