Mithrandir Metrics
AZ 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Carlos Santana

AZ · Hitter
Projected · 5 Neutral
MatchupAZ vs PHIAaron Nola
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 13 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.2
F 11.7
V 10.9
Model 19.4% Market 13.5% Gap +5.3pp
FanDuel 610 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 73.0% Market 74.0% Gap +13.7pp
BetMGM -285 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.4 · 1B
22 Regression applied
Range Runs-1.9 · 1B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed23.7 · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.1%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.2%
Small sample
Correct Decisions67.0%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.281 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.291
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.312
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNo current flag
Opposing pitcherAaron Nola
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)