Mithrandir Metrics
NYY 2026-05-24 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-24

Paul Goldschmidt

NYY · Hitter
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupNYY vs TBDrew Rasmussen
Sample7690.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 19 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.4
F 15.7
V 11.8
Model 16.6% Market 12.6% Gap +3.5pp
DraftKings 665 tracking Open board
Total Bases 1.5
P 63.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 63.4% Market 77.1% Gap -3.5pp
FanDuel 170 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.9%
96 +42 vs proj
Exit velocity91.3
86
Hard-hit%52.1%
93 +32 vs proj
xBA0.388
92
xSLG0.756
95
xwOBA0.413
98 +32 vs proj
BB%10.0%
64 +25 vs proj
Bat speed70.0
54
K%21.8%
50
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 1B
81
Range Runs1.1 · 1B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed24.6 · 1B
4
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 30.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 40.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions35.7%
Small sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.218
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.282 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.352
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline84
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.003
Opposing pitcherDrew Rasmussen
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)