Mithrandir Metrics
NYY 2026-05-25 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-25

Paul Goldschmidt

NYY · Hitter · bats R · age 39
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupNYY vs KCMichael Wacha
Sample7692.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 19 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.7
F 17.2
V 12.9
Model 18.4% Market 12.6% Gap +5.3pp
DraftKings 665 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 40.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 40.5% Market 40.4% Gap +0.8pp
FanDuel 470 tracking Open board
Hits 2.5
P 67.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 67.5% Market -- Gap +1.2pp
FanDuel -210 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.6%
95 +39 vs proj
Exit velocity90.7
78
Hard-hit%51.4%
92 +30 vs proj
xBA0.385
91
xSLG0.747
95
xwOBA0.410
99 +32 vs proj
BB%10.6%
70 +32 vs proj
Bat speed69.7
49
K%22.1%
49
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 1B
72
Range Runs1.1 · 1B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed24.5 · 1B
3
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 48.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions48.4%
Small sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.257
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.286 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.284 to 0.376
RegressionNegative · -0.001
Opposing pitcherMichael Wacha
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)