Mithrandir Metrics
KC 2026-08-09 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-09

Starling Marte

KC · Hitter
IN · 5 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupKC vs CHCMatthew Boyd
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 15 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 13.5
Model 19.3% Market 10.0% Gap +8.9pp
DraftKings 865 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 74.4% Market 75.3% Gap +13.6pp
BetMGM -305 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 16.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 16.2% Market -- Gap +11.6pp
FanDuel 260 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.4%
71 +36 vs proj
Exit velocity87.6
46
Hard-hit%36.8%
41
xBA0.324
55
xSLG0.499
48
xwOBA0.289
32 -30 vs proj
BB%5.8%
21
Bat speed69.8
52
K%24.6%
38
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength85.1 · RF
3
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
47
Arm Runs0.5 · RF
Small sample
Range Runs0.8 · RF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.7 · RF
12
SB Success Rate50.0% · RF
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.031
Opposing pitcherMatthew Boyd
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)