Mithrandir Metrics
LAA 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Travis D'Arnaud

LAA · Hitter · bats R · age 37
IN · 8 Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupLAA vs WSHCade Cavalli
Sample3310.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 46.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 54.0% Market 54.5% Gap +7.9pp
BetMGM -120 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.2%
70 +18 vs proj
Exit velocity87.3
44
Hard-hit%32.6%
25 -29 vs proj
xBA0.230
2
xSLG0.436
26
xwOBA0.244
7 -30 vs proj
BB%9.9%
68 +41 vs proj
Bat speed69.7
50
K%30.9%
13
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.0 · C
53
Catcher Throwing-0.1 · C
53
Framing Runs-2.5 · C
22
Pop Time1.9 · C
48
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.1 · C
6
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.3%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.1%
Small sample
Correct Decisions63.8%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.300 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.322 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.323
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline94
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.242 to 0.349
RegressionNo current flag
Opposing pitcherCade Cavalli
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)