Mithrandir Metrics
LAD 2026-06-16 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-16

Freddie Freeman

LAD · Hitter
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupLAD vs TBDrew Rasmussen
Sample8379.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 20.3
F 17.2
V 17.2
Model 19.9% Market 16.2% Gap +3.1pp
FanDuel 495 tracking Open board
Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.2%
85
Exit velocity90.9
83
Hard-hit%46.1%
78 +16 vs proj
xBA0.348
75
xSLG0.619
80
xwOBA0.379
94
BB%11.9%
81 +19 vs proj
Bat speed68.8
39
K%16.5%
81
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 1B
79
Range Runs1.9 · 1B
71
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.2 · 1B
48
Sprint Speed25.2 · 1B
7
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.0%
67
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.4%
90
Correct Decisions71.9%
92
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
87
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.284 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.303 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.256
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.381 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.369
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.012
Opposing pitcherDrew Rasmussen
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)