Mithrandir Metrics
LAD 2026-07-28 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-28

Freddie Freeman

LAD · Hitter · bats L · age 37
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupLAD vs SEALuis Castillo
Sample8503.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.6
F 14.9
V 16.0
Model 20.6% Market 16.2% Gap +3.8pp
FanDuel 495 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 70.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 86.7% Market 87.7% Gap +17.5pp
BetMGM -715 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.1%
79
Exit velocity90.2
78
Hard-hit%44.0%
74
xBA0.368
88
xSLG0.617
82
xwOBA0.383
98
BB%11.3%
79 +16 vs proj
Bat speed69.0
39
K%16.5%
83
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 1B
84
Range Runs2.6 · 1B
76
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.3 · 1B
16
Sprint Speed25.3 · 1B
8
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.3%
74
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.1%
93
Correct Decisions72.9%
94
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline111
92
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.301 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.257
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.404 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.377
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.367
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.318 to 0.413
RegressionNegative · -0.014
Opposing pitcherLuis Castillo
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)