Mithrandir Metrics
LAD 2026-08-30 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-30

Freddie Freeman

LAD · Hitter
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupLAD vs DETFramber Valdez
Sample8615.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.5
F 12.4
V 11.8
Model 20.2% Market 15.6% Gap +4.0pp
FanDuel 515 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 68.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 85.4% Market 86.4% Gap +17.6pp
BetMGM -635 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 33.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 33.0% Market -- Gap +1.9pp
FanDuel 220 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.9%
65
Exit velocity89.8
75
Hard-hit%42.6%
70
xBA0.367
91
xSLG0.591
77
xwOBA0.371
97
BB%10.4%
72
Bat speed68.7
37
K%16.3%
85
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 1B
72
Range Runs0.4 · 1B
55
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.8 · 1B
27
Sprint Speed25.4 · 1B
9
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.4%
70
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.7%
91
Correct Decisions72.0%
93
Resists FastballwOBA 0.364
15
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
89
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.273 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.299 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.265
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.399 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.350
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.010
Opposing pitcherFramber Valdez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)