Mithrandir Metrics
KC 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Salvador Perez

KC · Hitter · bats R · age 36
IN · 6 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupKC vs SDGermán Márquez
Sample6833.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.3
F 14.9
V 15.9
Model 18.8% Market 17.2% Gap +1.0pp
FanDuel 460 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 61.1% Market 76.7% Gap +10.9pp
FanDuel -110 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 26.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 26.4% Market -- Gap +4.8pp
FanDuel 220 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.5%
82
Exit velocity89.3
65
Hard-hit%43.4%
68
xBA0.293
23
xSLG0.497
45
xwOBA0.288
30 -44 vs proj
BB%3.6%
7
Bat speed70.4
61
K%20.1%
64 +17 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.6 · C
26
Catcher Throwing0.2 · C
61
Framing Runs-5.5 · C
4
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · C
6
Pop Time2.0 · C
29
Range Runs-3.4 · C
8
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed23.9 · DH
1
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 54.9%
11
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.1%
83
Correct Decisions62.9%
20
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
22
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.247 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.277 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.276
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.306 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.315
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.380
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.308 to 0.372
RegressionPositive · 0.001
Opposing pitcherGermán Márquez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)