Mithrandir Metrics
KC 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Salvador Perez

KC · Hitter · bats R · age 36
IN · 4 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupKC vs TORJameson Taillon
Sample6983.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 28 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.5
F 13.4
V 20.3
Model 20.5% Market 17.2% Gap +2.7pp
FanDuel 460 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 73.9% Market 75.0% Gap +14.4pp
BetMGM -300 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.9%
86
Exit velocity89.0
63
Hard-hit%42.6%
70
xBA0.302
31
xSLG0.531
59
xwOBA0.303
47 -33 vs proj
BB%3.8%
7
Bat speed70.0
56
K%19.5%
69 +20 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-1.1 · C
15
Catcher Throwing1.0 · C
71
Framing Runs-6.4 · C
5
Outs Above Avg-4.0 · C
5
Pop Time2.0 · C
29
Range Runs-2.8 · C
7
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.8 · DH
7
Sprint Speed23.7 · DH
1
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 54.1%
9
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.5%
82
Correct Decisions61.7%
14
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.251 · small sample
98
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline93
17
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.266 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.295
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.283 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.332
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.370
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.308 to 0.372
RegressionPositive · 0.002
Opposing pitcherJameson Taillon
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)