Mithrandir Metrics
PIT 2026-05-25 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-25

Marcell Ozuna

PIT · Hitter
IN · 6 Positive regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupPIT vs CHCBen Brown
Sample6204.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 17 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.2
F 13.4
V 10.1
Model 18.3% Market 20.4% Gap -2.1pp
BetMGM 390 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 37.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 37.3% Market 59.6% Gap +0.6pp
FanDuel 360 tracking Open board
Hits 2.5
P 60.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 60.8% Market -- Gap +0.8pp
FanDuel -160 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.5%
40 -40 vs proj
Exit velocity89.7
63
Hard-hit%41.3%
54 -30 vs proj
xBA0.328
52
xSLG0.601
75
xwOBA0.315
54 -33 vs proj
BB%9.1%
53 -19 vs proj
Bat speed71.9
78
K%27.3%
25
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.8 · DH
16
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 28.6%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 50.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions36.4%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.254 · small sample
small sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.329
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.363
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline74
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionPositive · 0.017
Opposing pitcherBen Brown
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)