Mithrandir Metrics
PIT 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Marcell Ozuna

PIT · Hitter · bats R · age 36
IN · 2 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupPIT vs CLEJoey Cantillo
Sample6273.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 20 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.5
F 12.2
V 15.6
Model 20.4% Market 21.5% Gap -1.8pp
DraftKings 350 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 62.5% Market 77.3% Gap +11.1pp
FanDuel 185 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 20.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 20.7% Market -- Gap +4.9pp
FanDuel 460 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.8%
45 -37 vs proj
Exit velocity89.7
70
Hard-hit%39.9%
54 -32 vs proj
xBA0.347
75
xSLG0.628
83
xwOBA0.313
57 -37 vs proj
BB%8.9%
54 -23 vs proj
Bat speed72.0
79
K%30.1%
15 -20 vs proj
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.2 · DH
7
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.5%
75
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.3%
48
Correct Decisions67.3%
62
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
72
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.271 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.263 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.270
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.325 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.336
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.348
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.311 to 0.415
RegressionPositive · 0.007
Opposing pitcherJoey Cantillo
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)