Mithrandir Metrics
PIT 2026-07-21 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-21

Marcell Ozuna

PIT · Hitter
IN · 2 Positive regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupPIT vs NYYWill Warren
Sample6276.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 20 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.8
F 12.2
V 14.9
Model 20.8% Market 20.5% Gap -0.5pp
DraftKings 370 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 74.2% Market 75.3% Gap +14.6pp
BetMGM -305 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.8%
46 -37 vs proj
Exit velocity89.5
67
Hard-hit%39.1%
51 -36 vs proj
xBA0.342
70
xSLG0.618
81
xwOBA0.309
53 -41 vs proj
BB%8.8%
54 -23 vs proj
Bat speed72.0
79
K%30.0%
15 -19 vs proj
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.2 · DH
7
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.5%
75
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.3%
48
Correct Decisions67.3%
62
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
72
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.271 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.263 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.270
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.325 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.336
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.348
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionPositive · 0.005
Opposing pitcherWill Warren
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)