Mithrandir Metrics
PIT 2026-07-25 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-25

Marcell Ozuna

PIT · Hitter
IN · 6 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupPIT vs CHCShota Imanaga
Sample6282.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 10 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.5
F 12.2
V 15.8
Model 22.1% Market 20.9% Gap +0.3pp
FanDuel 360 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 63.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 77.6% Market 78.5% Gap +14.7pp
BetMGM -365 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 21.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 21.7% Market -- Gap +3.5pp
FanDuel 420 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.6%
43 -40 vs proj
Exit velocity89.5
68
Hard-hit%39.4%
51 -36 vs proj
xBA0.341
70
xSLG0.612
79
xwOBA0.310
55 -40 vs proj
BB%9.3%
59 -19 vs proj
Bat speed71.9
79
K%29.9%
15 -19 vs proj
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.1 · DH
6

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionPositive · 0.004
Opposing pitcherShota Imanaga
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)