Mithrandir Metrics
NYM 2026-07-09 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-09

Marcus Semien

NYM · Hitter · bats R · age 36
IL10 · 5 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupNYM vs KCMichael Wacha
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.8
F 13.7
V 12.2
Model 17.6% Market 13.2% Gap +4.0pp
FanDuel 630 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 73.9% Market 75.0% Gap +10.5pp
BetMGM -300 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.2%
68
Exit velocity86.3
28
Hard-hit%36.7%
37
xBA0.333
64
xSLG0.542
61
xwOBA0.316
59
BB%7.4%
34
Bat speed66.5
15
K%21.0%
58
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · 2B
11
Arm Strength85.3 · 2B
40
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · 2B
8
Range Runs-3.5 · 2B
18
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.1 · 2B
47
Sprint Speed28.1 · 2B
71
SB Success Rate50.0% · 2B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.9%
47
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.8%
64
Correct Decisions68.6%
74
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
53
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.234 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.282 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.305
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.334 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.322
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.365
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.272 to 0.366
RegressionPositive · 0.010
Opposing pitcherMichael Wacha
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)