Mithrandir Metrics
TOR 2026-06-09 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-09

George Springer

TOR · Hitter · bats R · age 37
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTOR vs PHIZack Wheeler
Sample5733.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 22 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 18.0
F 15.5
V 15.5
Model 17.4% Market 17.1% Gap -0.3pp
DraftKings 465 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 59.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 59.7% Market 73.7% Gap +2.6pp
FanDuel 140 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +7.9pp
FanDuel 10000 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.9%
74
Exit velocity88.2
48
Hard-hit%38.6%
44
xBA0.282
17
xSLG0.469
35
xwOBA0.301
41 -30 vs proj
BB%9.7%
62
Bat speed69.9
54
K%17.6%
77 +22 vs proj
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.5 · DH
24
Sprint Speed26.6 · DH
29
SB Success Rate50.0% · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.1%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.4%
Small sample
Correct Decisions72.2%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.296 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.287
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.333 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.356
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.321
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.290 to 0.384
RegressionNegative · -0.072
Opposing pitcherZack Wheeler
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)