Mithrandir Metrics
LAA 2026-05-28 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-28

Mike Trout

LAA · Hitter · bats R · age 35
IN · 2 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupLAA vs DETJack Flaherty
Sample6161.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.3
F 17.2
V 12.9
Model 15.8% Market 19.2% Gap -3.5pp
BetMGM 420 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 66.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 66.5% Market 64.5% Gap +2.0pp
FanDuel -205 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 59.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 59.0% Market -- Gap --pp
Internal -- tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.2%
94 +16 vs proj
Exit velocity90.6
79
Hard-hit%47.8%
83
xBA0.359
80
xSLG0.814
98
xwOBA0.412
99 +22 vs proj
BB%20.1%
100 +15 vs proj
Bat speed73.2
90
K%24.2%
37 +24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · CF
65
Arm Strength93.2 · CF
61
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · CF
3
Range Runs-2.0 · CF
18
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.5 · CF
63
Bolts4.0 · CF
49
Sprint Speed28.8 · CF
89
SB Success Rate100.0% · CF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 76.7%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 10.8%
Small sample
Correct Decisions78.8%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.254 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.261 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.286
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.320 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.329
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.354
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline114
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.293 to 0.386
RegressionNegative · -0.028
Opposing pitcherJack Flaherty
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)