Mithrandir Metrics
LAA 2026-06-16 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-16

Mike Trout

LAA · Hitter · bats R · age 35
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupLAA vs AZMerrill Kelly
Sample6224.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 18.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
Model 17.6% Market 18.8% Gap -1.7pp
DraftKings 415 tracking Open board
Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.8%
96 +19 vs proj
Exit velocity91.3
86
Hard-hit%52.2%
94 +16 vs proj
xBA0.376
91
xSLG0.811
99
xwOBA0.410
99 +22 vs proj
BB%19.8%
99
Bat speed73.1
90
K%25.0%
34 +21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.5 · CF
69
Arm Strength93.2 · CF
60
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · CF
9
Range Runs-1.9 · CF
23
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.3 · CF
32
Bolts4.0 · CF
49
Sprint Speed28.7 · CF
87
SB Success Rate100.0% · CF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 77.3%
96
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.2%
39
Correct Decisions69.8%
82
Resists FastballwOBA 0.386
4
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
91
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.301 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.252 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.285
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.377 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.363
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.293 to 0.386
RegressionNegative · -0.009
Opposing pitcherMerrill Kelly
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)