Mithrandir Metrics
LAA 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Mike Trout

LAA · Hitter · bats R · age 35
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupLAA vs DETCasey Mize
Sample6257.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.5
F 15.5
V 13.1
Model 17.8% Market 18.8% Gap -1.6pp
DraftKings 415 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 53.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 53.3% Market 67.2% Gap +8.4pp
FanDuel 100 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 17.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 17.9% Market -- Gap +8.4pp
FanDuel 280 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.4%
97 +17 vs proj
Exit velocity90.8
84
Hard-hit%49.5%
89
xBA0.382
93
xSLG0.807
98
xwOBA0.408
99 +19 vs proj
BB%18.6%
100
Bat speed73.2
91
K%25.0%
37 +21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.6 · CF
66
Arm Strength93.2 · CF
53
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · CF
6
Range Runs-2.6 · CF
22
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.0 · CF
43
Bolts5.0 · CF
55
SB Success Rate100.0% · CF
93
Sprint Speed28.7 · CF
86
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 77.3%
97
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.2%
39
Correct Decisions69.8%
84
Resists FastballwOBA 0.385
4
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
90
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.302 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.252 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.377 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.363
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.293 to 0.386
RegressionNegative · -0.009
Opposing pitcherCasey Mize
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)