Mithrandir Metrics
PHI 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Bryce Harper

PHI · Hitter · bats L · age 34
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupPHI vs ATLChris Sale
Sample6926.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.2
F 12.6
V 12.6
Model 18.4% Market 18.4% Gap -0.7pp
DraftKings 425 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 66.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 66.1% Market 79.6% Gap +16.0pp
FanDuel 190 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 24.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 24.4% Market -- Gap +5.9pp
FanDuel 440 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.1%
81
Exit velocity90.3
81
Hard-hit%44.9%
79
xBA0.371
93
xSLG0.672
92
xwOBA0.394
99
BB%16.5%
99
Bat speed72.5
84
K%20.6%
61
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.8 · 1B
96
Arm Strength93.7 · 1B
91
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · 1B
8
Range Runs-4.2 · 1B
16
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-3.4 · 1B
5
SB Success Rate44.4% · 1B
2
Sprint Speed27.2 · 1B
44
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.7%
47
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 17.9%
94
Correct Decisions68.2%
71
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
80
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.363 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.298 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.307
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.335 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.416
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.391
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.321 to 0.414
RegressionNegative · -0.006
Opposing pitcherChris Sale
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)