Mithrandir Metrics
AZ 2026-06-12 Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-12

Nolan Arenado

AZ · Hitter · bats R · age 35
IN · 4 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupAZ vs CINNick Lodolo
Sample7017.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 56.6
F 73.6 EXPERIMENTAL
V 77.2 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 56.6% Market 73.6% Gap +2.4pp
FanDuel 110 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 21.5
F 19.1 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 21.5% Market -- Gap +8.8pp
FanDuel 230 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.8%
45 +19 vs proj
Exit velocity85.3
17
Hard-hit%31.6%
18
xBA0.327
54
xSLG0.500
45
xwOBA0.320
59 +23 vs proj
BB%8.8%
51 +24 vs proj
Bat speed69.1
43
K%18.9%
69 -16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength83.6 · 3B
32
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 3B
70
Range Runs1.9 · 3B
74
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.2 · 3B
11
Sprint Speed25.4 · 3B
9
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.1%
47
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.1%
23
Correct Decisions63.3%
23
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
34
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.293 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.292
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.341 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.369
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.370
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.265 to 0.347
RegressionNegative · -0.056
Opposing pitcherNick Lodolo
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-14
Palantir 5634 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 5634 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)