Mithrandir Metrics
LAD 2026-06-16 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-16

Max Muncy

LAD · Hitter · bats L · age 36
IN · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupLAD vs TBDrew Rasmussen
Sample3512.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.6
F 13.4
V 13.4
Model 16.0% Market 19.2% Gap -3.2pp
BetMGM 420 tracking Open board
Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.6%
95 +26 vs proj
Exit velocity90.6
80
Hard-hit%48.8%
87 +18 vs proj
xBA0.375
91
xSLG0.750
97
xwOBA0.393
97 +20 vs proj
BB%13.2%
88
Bat speed69.9
55
K%24.2%
37
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength84.9 · 3B
37
Outs Above Avg5.0 · 3B
94
Range Runs3.9 · 3B
88
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.1 · 3B
46
Sprint Speed27.1 · 3B
42
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.3%
68
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.4%
30
Correct Decisions67.1%
60
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
56
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.294 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.267 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.315
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.325 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.387
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.371
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.291 to 0.397
RegressionNegative · -0.031
Opposing pitcherDrew Rasmussen
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)