Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-17

Mike Yastrzemski

ATL · Hitter · bats L · age 36

IL10 · 6 Negative regression Neutral

MatchupATL vs TEXCal Quantrill

Sample--career MLB AB

PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only

Tonight's props · all markets for this player

Home Run 0.5

P 15.5

F 14.5

V 12.1

Model 18.7% Market 13.5% Gap +4.7pp

FanDuel 615 tracking Open board

Total Bases 0.5

P 61.4

F 62.0 EXPERIMENTAL

V 61.0 EXPERIMENTAL

FULL

Model 69.7% Market 70.6% Gap +9.2pp

BetMGM -240 tracking Open board

Hits --

Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --

RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%4.4%

41 -17 vs proj

Exit velocity89.8

Hard-hit%43.8%

xBA0.313

xSLG0.482

xwOBA0.305

BB%10.3%

Bat speed69.1

K%23.8%

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs0.2 · LF

Arm Strength92.5 · LF

Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF

Range Runs-1.2 · LF

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs0.8 · LF

Sprint Speed27.2 · LF

Mithrandir+ · percentile strip

Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.6%

Small sample

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.2%

Small sample

Correct Decisions63.5%

Small sample

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.273 · small sample

small sample

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.296 · thin sample

thin sample

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288

Small sample

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.321 · thin sample

thin sample

Resists FastballwOBA 0.335

Small sample

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351

Small sample

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98

Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup

Projected range0.294 to 0.358

RegressionNegative · -0.040

Opposing pitcherCal Quantrill

EnvironmentNeutral

Lane calibration receipts

Lane Health 2026-07-17

Palantir 9390 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable

Fangorn 9390 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.012 14d stable

Valinor 3795 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d stable

Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building

Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building

Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building

Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)